On August 20 and 21, 2007, villagers reportedly attacked United Nations Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) forces, which are the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The villagers used stones to attack the security forces, apparently in coordinated protests organized by General Laurent Nkunda, who is a rebel leader and former military officer in the DRC armed forces.
The ensuing instability resulted in approximately 10,000 people fleeing to Uganda, fearful that tensions would further escalate. Due to such previous crisis over the past decade, it has been common for DRC villagers to flee to Uganda when violence ensues and tensions escalate. The villagers in eastern DRC have complained that MONUC and Congolese security forces have not done enough to prevent rebel attacks that often result in executions and rape.
Uganda frequently becomes the “safe” grounds for those fleeing violence. Such movement of refugees is expected to continue in the near to mid-term as violence in the region increases.
Rebel Influence
Laurent Nkunda was formerly a general in the Congolese army. He now leads a rebel army mostly comprised of former Congolese soldiers from the North-Kivu province. In 2005 the Congolese government issued an international arrest warrant for Nkunda for war crimes, however he remains at-large. Additionally, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is currently investigating him.
• Despite these charges, and Nkunda’s forces continued acts of violence, it is believed the rebels do not pose an overall threat to the stability in the DRC, and have been contained to eastern DRC.
However, due to a failure by MONUC and Congolese security forces to protect the villagers in the province of North-Kivu, villagers remain fearful of rebel attacks. In addition to the lack of protection, the brutality of the rebels continues to instill fear into the population.
Refugees Return
Of the 10,000 refugees who fled to Uganda, 3,000 will be temporarily resettled at the Nyakabande Refugee Reception Center. The other 7,000 refugees have returned back to the DRC, though it remains unclear whether the areas they fled, in the North-Kivu province, are peaceful again.
It is likely that the 3,000 temporarily relocated refugees will return once the North-Kivu region stabilizes. However, further hostilities between Nkunda’s forces and the Congolese and MONUC forces are possible, delaying the return of those 3,000 refugees and possibly causing more refugees to flee to Uganda.
Future Concerns
As DRC security forces continue to fight rebels allied with General Nkunda, we expect the areas in North-Kivu province to continue to experience high tensions and sporadic violence. Due to fighting between Nkunda’s rebels and the DRC security forces and MONUC forces, the border area with Uganda is expected to remain ungoverned, resulting in a virtual open border between the two countries as long as the fighting continues.
While sporadic violence is likely to persist in the near-term in the North-Kivu province, it is not expected to extend beyond the province. The relative stability the DRC has experienced since the end of the war occurring between 1998 and 2002 is expected to continue in the near-term.
However, regional conflicts such as the one in the North-Kivu province and fighting in Kinshasa in March 2007, are likely to continue in the near-term as parties that feel disenfranchised from the elections held in October 2006 continue to express grievances, often through violence.
