On August 24, 2007 Philippine President Gloria Macapagel-Arroyo ordered the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to end armed rebellion, Muslim secularism and terrorism by the end of her term in 2010. This statement comes after an increase of attacks by the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in July, including the beheading of ten soldiers. President Arroyo said the AFP will use a two-pronged attack in the southern islands of Basilan and Sulu, where ASG violence is most common, including a full military offensive and humanitarian aid to those displaced by the fighting.
While the fighting continues in southern Philippines, Malaysia is negotiating talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), another group seeking to establish an Islamic state in the Philippines. The talks have been stalled since September 2006 and were set to resume on August 22, 2007 but were abruptly cancelled.
• We believe that the AFP’s offensive against ASG will continue for the long term and is a significant component of President Arroyo’s counter-terrorism plan.
• Continued stalling of peace talks with the MILF only increases the likelihood of continued MILF aid to the ASG in the near-term.
Local Fear Deepens
The ASG carried out some of the worst attacks in Philippine history during July and August 2007. ASG has been linked to the al Qaeda network of Osama bin Ladin and other Philippine groups, including the MILF, have been accused of assisting the ASG in its attacks against the government.
Nearly 24,000 people have fled to escape the increased fighting between the AFP and ASG in the past week. The civil defense office said that 40 hamlets had been evacuated on Basilan and Sulu and 14 schools shut down since the July 10, 2007 attacks, which left 14 soldiers dead . The displaced residents have sought refuge at government run centers in safer areas of the islands.
The AFP chief of staff General Hermogenes Esperon reported that the ASG currently has 58 members in Basilan and 120 in Sulu. The large military presence in the region has been increased to 10,000 soldiers to pursue the rebels but has suffered some of the worst battlefield defeats in recent years.
US Aid
Late last month local Philippines media outlets reported that the US State Department had proposed sharp cuts in aid to the Philippines. The militants welcomed this because they claimed the money was used to kill activists and commit human rights abuses; however, the report was later proven to be false.
In response, a member of the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee assured the Philippine military that there would not be a cut in aid, upon his arrival in Zamboango City on August 26, 2007. The US Congressman, who was traveling with a larger US delegation, stated that the US is pleased with the AFP efforts to end terrorism and will continue to support the continued fighting in the south.
Future Goals and Roadblocks
We believe that the continued US aid coupled with the AFP’s increased efforts to combat the ASG rebels come close to achieving President Arroyo’s goal in three years. However, the military must plan for the many obstacles they will face along the way.
The poor roads on the islands make it hard for the AFP to pursue the rebels, especially in the rainy season. Additionally, there is a much higher chance that the MILF will continue to support ASG forces if peace talks do not resume soon. Abu Sayyaf gunmen often seek refuge in or near MILF or Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) strongholds in order to evade pursuing troops. MNLF signed a peace agreement with the government in 1996 and has accused the military of attacking their encampments, and threatening retaliation if it continued.
While the fight to end terrorism in the Philippines will not be accomplished easily, the AFP appears to have already destabilized the ASG. On August 15, 2007 a video released by the ASG made the group appear weakened and in disarray. They asked for assistance from Muslim militants in other countries and the two leaders interviewed on the video have been killed (Previous Report).
Increased fighting and militant attacks are likely in the near to mid-term, however, if AFP forces continue to effectively undermine the rebels, the terrorist presence will subside in the long-term.
