The July 14, 2007, outbreak of hostilities between Hamas and Fatah in the Gaza Strip and Hamas’s subsequent military takeover of the Gaza Strip was followed by a flurry of activity both domestically and internationally. As Hamas worked to secure the Gaza Strip and disarm rogue militants, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed the unity government and appointed a new cabinet, outlawed Hamas militants, and secured the West Bank. For its part, the West enacted a “West Bank First” policy, throwing its support behind President Abbas. Israel released 250 Palestinian prisoners from its jails and Western governments reinstated previously withdrawn aid to the Palestinian Authority. In an effort to create legitimacy and gain public support for the Palestinian Authority, Israel and President Abbas reopened peace talks.
Since taking over Gaza, Hamas successfully secured the release of journalist Alan Johnston from the Islam Army and prohibited the use of fire arms. Hamas’s tenure is, however, plagued by efforts to isolate Gaza through closing the Karni crossing into Gaza and power outages as a result of the EU’s decision to suspend aid through which it funded Gaza’s fuel supplies. In Gaza, the humanitarian crisis is deepening as power shortages and insufficient medical and food supplies threaten the welfare of Gaza’s 1.5 million Palestinian residents.
Threat of Increased Radicalism
Attempts by Hamas to open negotiations with Fatah and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority were rejected outright. Accusations that President Abbas was talking to Hamas representatives were countered by verbal assurances from the Palestinian Authority to both Israel and the US Congress that it will not seek reconciliation. Thus far, Hamas has worked to secure Gaza and disarm dissidents. The legitimacy of this policy is undermined by Israeli airstrikes targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leaders in Gaza, and outbreaks of fighting between Hamas and the PIJ over its law against public discharge of weapons.
In the absence of political opportunities to reconcile with the Palestinian Authority, Hamas is left with no option but to look to its supporters in Iran and Syria. If the Palestinian Authority continues its policy of isolating Gaza, it is anticipated that attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip will increase and Hamas will begin to target the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
No Peace Without Unanimity
Peace efforts between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Abbas will come to in the absence of a unity government. For Israel’s part, Olmert’s power is waning in light of ongoing investigations into his performance during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War. Likewise, President Abbas lacks the ability to speak on behalf of the Palestinian state when the Palestinian Territories are effectively divided between two governments.
History has shown us that any effort by a Palestinian leader to negotiate with Israel without the support of the Palestinian populace is greeted with disdain. Former Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat was forced to publicly deny his agreement to the Oslo Accords due to the public’s disdain for his actions. Likewise, President Abbas will lose the support of the Palestinian people if he is increasingly viewed as a Western collaborator.
Therefore, any agreements diplomatically reached between the two parties will be not be implementable on the ground. The only hope for security in the Palestinian Territories is a return to the negotiation table that yields the formation of a Palestinian national government. Until that day comes, the security situation in Gaza and the West Bank is expected to deteriorate.
