Iraqi Prime Minister (PM) Nouri al-Maliki’s lack luster performance since his appointment in May 2006 has spurred a debate over who will be the next Prime Minster of Iraq. Although no timetable has been enacted to name a new PM, possible candidates have been garnering support in anticipation of a leadership change.
A list of four potential candidates has emerged in the midst of the debate: former PM Iyad Allawi, former PM Ibrahim al-Jafari, Adil Abd al-Mahdi, and Mahdi al-Hafiz. Each of these candidates is backed by a political party, but former PM Iyad Allawi is the front-runner among the current contenders.
Saddam-Light
Former PM Iyad Allawi is frequently described as Saddam-Light. Formerly a Ba’thist student activist and party member, former PM Allawi participated in the 1963 coup against then President Abdul Karim Qassam, a communist, and established the Ba’thist government. Former PM Allawi later moved to London to continue his medical studies during a Baath cleansing campaign following Saddam Hussein’s political ascension. It was in London that former PM Allawi officially left the Ba’th party and organized an anti-Ba’th movement, citing the party’s departure from its socialist roots and brutality as the reasons for his opposition.
Former PM Allawi is also a known to have worked with both the MI-6 and the CIA during his time in exile. With the help of the CIA, former PM Allawi and his opposition group the Iraqi List attempted to overthrow Saddam Hussein in 1996. In June 1996, however, the plan was uncovered by Saddam; hundreds of military officers were arrested, tortured, and killed as a result. At the time, Saddam Hussein attempted to assassinate former PM Allawi.
Upon returning to Iraq, following the 2003 Iraq War, former PM Allawi was quoted as saying, “Iraqis had become liars and cheats and murderers, and only respected brute force, and that was how he had to deal with them. I will use brute force!” Known to have a temper and intent on securing Iraqi sovereignty from foreign militias, former PM Allawi is known to have a strongman persona. Witnesses relayed to reporters in 2005 that former PM Allawi killed five terrorist suspects execution style while proclaiming, “This is how we must deal with terrorists!” Former PM Allawi categorically denies the execution occurred, but admonishes that terrorists must be rooted out by force.
A secularist and a nationalist, former PM Allawi supports the reversal of de-Ba’thification, which he opposed from the beginning saying that the policy should have been de-Saddamization instead. In doing so, he has won the support of the Sunni bloc and many Sadrists.
Building A Coalition
Former PM Iyad Allawi is working behind the scenes to build a coalition called the Iraqi National Front (INP). According to a member of the Sunni political bloc, there are 32 political groups in former PM Allawi’s coalition including: al-Tawafuq, Allawi’s party the Iraqi National Accord, and al-Fadilah. Other groups include some of the Sadrists, the Ba’thists, the old army leadership, the Arab tribe organizations, some influential political groups from the south—especially Ayatollah al-Sarkhi’s group, the Iraqi Turkoman Front, and the Kurdish movement—except for two Kurdish parties. In total, the parties excluded from the coalition include: two Kurdish parties (still to be negotiated with) and Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) (formerly Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq).
In March 2007, the Iraqi National Front’s platform emerged, it espoused:
• Declaring martial law for a period of two years;
• Forming a ministerial group headed by a competent, nonsectarian prime minister and including the ministers of defense, interior, national security, and justice, as well as the head of the intelligence service;
• Working to build national institutions, combat militias, and purge state institutions of those militias;
• Holding a United Nations (UN)-sponsored Sharm el-Sheikh conference—which has since been held by PM al-Maliki with little success.
At the time, former PM Allawi’s plan was too much of a step back from Iraq’s power-sharing government. The US was committed to establishing a free, democratic government, but the lack of movement on the political front increasingly forced the US to look for alternative sources of leadership.
Since March 2007, however, a lot has changed on the ground in Iraq:
• the US enacted the Baghdad Security Plan, but it has failed to achieve both political and security benchmarks
• major splits occurred within the Sunni insurgency between nationalists and al-Qaeda-linked insurgents
• the US, therefore, allied with and armed several Sunni tribal coalitions and anti-al-Qaeda Sunni insurgencies
By strengthening the Sunni tribes and nationalist insurgencies, the US set the stage for former PM Allawi to rise to office. The Sunni tribes are now strong enough militarily to contest a resolutely pro-Iranian Shia government. Therefore, the ideal prime minister to replace PM al-Maliki is a candidate, like former PM Allawi, who has the support of the Sunni bloc and the nationalist groups.
PM al-Maliki vs. Former PM Allawi
PM al-Maliki failed to form a coalition in February 2007 because of his unwillingness to compromise with the Sunni bloc of de-Ba’thification and power sharing. Since that time, the Sunni and Allawi blocs withdrew from parliament, while the Sadrists continue to float in and out of the political system. Former PM Allawi has the support of the Sunnis and some of the Sadrists and Kurdish parties, but continues to vie for the support of the two primary Kurdish parties. This inclusion of a reversal of de-Ba’thification and utilization of Arab military support sets him at odds with SIIC and Iran, as well as Ayatollah as-Sistani.
Any movement toward a vote of no confidence for PM al-Maliki cannot occur until the parliament reconvenes in September 2007. It is also unlikely that changes will be made prior to the September 15, 2007 review of the Baghdad Security Plan.
By the end of September, beginning of November 2007, the fate of al-Maliki’s government will be decided. The lack of support for al-Maliki’s regime in Iraq and the US, as well as the Arab Gulf, almost assures that the Prime Minister’s days in office are numbered.
In a future contest for the Iraq Prime Minister position, we look for former PM Allawi to emerge as the primary candidate for office, with former PM al-Jafari coming in second, and an Iranian backed Adil Abd al-Mahdi coming in third.
