With 92 percent of the votes counted from the July 22, 2007, Parliamentary elections, it appears that Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has won a significant victory, claiming 47 percent of the overall vote. The AKP have significantly increased (by 13 percent) its showing since the 2002 elections when it won 34.28 percent of the vote. Sunday’s results firmly legitimize the AKP as the majority party in the Grand National Assembly and as the government of Turkey.
The secularist left-wing party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) received 20 percent of the vote and right-wing nationalist party, the National Action Party (MHP) received 14 percent of the vote. These two parties were the only parties that met the ten percent criteria threshold for a party to enter Parliament. However a number of independent candidates, mostly from the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society party (DTP) also ran separately for Parliament and won twenty-six seats.
The number of successful female candidates also doubled from the last election cycle. In addition, there is now a number of Kurdish MPs, something that has not been seen in almost a decade. The AKP number of actual seats was reduced slightly despite a larger win, mainly due to the fact that the MHP now has a footing in the Parliament and its seats take away from the overall totals. While the AKP now has enough power to move most issues through parliament, it still will have to deal with two very differing opposition groups, thus the process will not necessarily be easy.
Rise of the AKP
Previously, the AKP’s success was attributed to adverse economic policies in Turkey and political infighting and scandals of other parties, which allowed the AKP to rise in prominence. Cynics pointed out that the AKP’s past success was predicated on the failures of others. However, the current election results provide ample demonstration that the AKP’s success is now its own.
Despite high voter turnout and a well organized and mostly peaceful election process (despite the fact that one candidate was gunned down), tensions were very high leading up to the elections. These tensions have straddled the Islamist-secular divide in Turkey. These elections were brought forward by current Prime Minister and AKP member, Recep Erdogan when opposition groups in Parliament stymied him in his quest to appoint an AKP candidate, namely Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as President. Opposition groups and secularists were fearful that if the AKP achieved a government triumvirate of Prime Minister, Speaker of Parliament and President, they would effectively have enough control to infiltrate Islamic values into Turkish society (Previous Report). The Turkish Republic is based on fiercely secular foundations as espoused by the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk over eighty years ago. Ataturk’s follower’s believed that Islam as a religion complicated the workings of the state and should have no place in official business.
While the AKP is an Islamist rooted party, it claims that it is committed to maintaining both secularism and instituting democratic and economic reforms in Turkey. The AKP points to the economic stability, prosperity and growth Turkey has enjoyed under its tenure, the engagement of Turkey and the European Union on preliminary membership ascension talks, and the improvement of Turkey’s human rights record as evidence of its commitment to democratic principles. The AKP claims that religion is personal, but it is possible to be both Turkish and Islamist, but that practitioners of this faith should not be discriminated against simply for practicing their faith.
Reason for Victory
The AKP victory would seem to indicate that the dire warnings secularists pointed to regarding the true motivations of the AKP were not heeded. Although there is evidence of Islamist tenets penetrating institutions such as educational ones, and Islamists being appointed to key positions in government offices and other examples of religious stealth encroaching on Turkish society, it is not blatant enough to provoke discontent. A new Islamic middle class interested in governance has also taken root in the country. Although the Turkish Armed Forces have intervened in a series of coups in the past when it felt that the government was straying too far off the designated path and made ominous statements recently about protecting the secularism of the republic, the tolerance of the Turkish public for a military take-over may have waned in recent years. Coups are seen as a sign of instability. With a great deal of stability, economic prosperity, EU membership talks and political and democratic reforms, voters may have trusted their instincts to not upset the status quo and while not necessarily being major supporters of the AKP, still believed that this party could run the country most effectively. Finally, opposition parties were just not organized enough to send out a clear and convincing message to inspire voter confidence.
Next Steps and the Road Ahead
While the election results must be officially validated by the Higher Election Council, it is likely that the Grand National Assembly will go to work quickly in early August 2007 to establish Parliamentary organs and elect a new Parliamentary Speaker. However, the hardest task will once again be election of the next President. There is still debate as to whether a referendum should occur to have the President elected by a popular vote, or if Parliament can work together to elect a suitable candidate. While it is not likely that opposition groups can again block the election process, which started the whole political crisis, an accord with a more suitable candidate is possible this time around. The EU has also called on Turkey to refocus on reforms now that this political crisis is over.
However, this election may not provide sustained calm. If the Presidential candidate becomes a controversial issue once again, or there are blatant signs of de-secularization, it is certainly possible that the Turkish Armed Forces may intervene in some capacity. It is also concerning that the MHP is now influential enough to have a number of seats in Parliament. The party consists of right wing nationalists who are anti-EU and believe that other forces are trying to destroy the concept of “Turkishness”. There have been increasing incidents of nationalist violence erupting in Turkey. The fact that this group now has a seat at the table of political power could make things difficult for trying to harmonize all the differing sentiments in Turkey.
Kurdish rights may possibly improve with the selection of Kurdish independent candidates, but then again, previous politicians have been removed from office for trying to aid in the rights of Kurds. However, the AKP has managed to attract the Kurdish minority, something previous parties have had a hard time managing.
It is likely that until key political positions such as the President is filled; there will continue to be a state of unease over the outcomes of these elections.
