Frustration among citizens opposing Thailand’s September 2006 coup has continued to grow in recent weeks after interim leadership dissolved the popular Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party and dragged its feet producing a revised constitution. Once-sporadic demonstrations have now become daily occurrences in Bangkok common areas, and violence, although mild, has broken out between protestors and security forces.
With only a few weeks separating the Thai populace from a crucial referendum set to decide the fate of the Council of National Security’s (CNS) new constitution, civil unrest is expected to rise. If the constitution is found to be unacceptable by voters and/or elections are postponed, increased social and economic instability may be likely byproducts.
Bangkok Protests Turn Violent
Between 2,000 and 5,000 protestors have maintained nightly demonstrations in the capital city since early June 2007. Calling themselves the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), members have been for the most part peaceful until recently. A significant majority of coup opponents are former supporters of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
On July 22, 2007, demonstrators began throwing rocks and debris at security forces. UDD participants began marching on the home of General Prem Tinasulanond, a close advisor to King Bumibol Adulyadej. Protestors accuse Prem of masterminding the September 19, 2006 coup that deposed Thaksin, and maintain that the allegedly harsh response by the police confirms UDD suspicions.
Thai security forces were able to quell the brief attack using water cannons and tear gas along with batons. Approximately 110 people, 77 of whom were police, were treated at Bangkok’s Narenthorn Emergency Center for primarily minor injuries. Six protestors, some of whom were leaders of the demonstration, were later arrested under various “disturbing of the peace” charges.
Long Term Stability Questionable
The altercation in Bangkok likely heralds in a new phase in the CNS’s evolution and transition back to democratic elections. Although the clash was minor, army-installed Prime Minister General Surayud Chulanont revealed it was unexpected.
The CNS is struggling with the Thaksin factor. By dissolving the TRT and blacklisting the former Prime Minister, Thaksin has been made a pseudo-martyr to supporters and the poorer classes. Despite having nearly $1.5 billion of his family assets frozen by the CNS through the Assets Examination Committee (AEC), Thaksin has managed to file a countersuit while finalizing a book deal and the acquisition of England’s Manchester City Football Club. The former Prime Minister’s enormous financial holdings may permit him to affect or reenter Thai politics in the future, regardless of his 10-year ban from the polls.
Elections and Referendum Are Key
Ultimately, the primary milestones for Thai’s future political climate will be elections and the referendum for the constitution. If the constitution, which has already been condemned by TRT supporters, fails, CNS legitimacy may be compromised. Mounting discontent, however, has already proven divisive among coup opponents. UDD leaders have reported internal clashes over whether to attempt to achieve their goals diplomatically, or by any means possible.
The best-case scenario for Thailand is majority acceptance of the proposed constitution and smooth, internationally monitored elections that do not involve CNS leaders taking office. In the meantime, heightened, vigilant security will be crucial in ensuring polls remain safe from tampering, but also from acts of violence by extreme Muslim insurgents seeking to take advantage of Thailand’s fragility.
