For every step Turkey takes to move the exploratory EU membership talks forward, it seems to take a step backwards. Just when Turkey and the European Union were about to resume exploratory talks on EU membership, yet another hurdle seems to be derailing the process.
To date, the Turkish and EU exploratory talks have been fraught with tensions, which culminated with the suspension of eight chapters of ascension talks in December 2006. Membership negotiations are conducted in “chapters” which are related to the Copenhagen Criteria, the rules that define whether a country is eligible for membership. These include “Europeaness”, democracy, respect for human rights, viable market economy, and adherence to the objectives of the European Union.
These chapters are areas of consideration examining the compatibility of the candidate country to be integrated into the EU political-economic system. There are currently thirty-five chapters that Turkey must address. Opening any chapter for discussion must be a unanimous decision by member states. Therefore, a member state can block the opening of a particular chapter.
Germany, which is at the end of its European Union Presidency had hoped to restart negotiations by the end of June 2007 with three chapters – statistics, financial control, and economic and monetary policy. However, although France denied an outright veto of the economic and monetary policy chapter, it did admit behind the scenes negotiations with Cyprus to prevent the chapter being offered to Turkey for discussion.
French and European Roadblocks
Although President Merkel has stated that the EU would press ahead with talks with Turkey, Germany has previously issued negative rhetoric on Turkey’s candidacy. As Germany no longer has to maintain diplomatic objectivity over the EU ascension talks, it is likely that its negative position on Turkish EU membership will resume.
The ascension talks were suspended earlier because Turkey refused to open up its ports to traffic from the Republic of Cyprus. However, Ankara countered that the EU had to lift its embargo on the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which only Turkey officially recognizes.
The issue of Cyprus has been a major stumbling block for Turkey. Because Turkey refuses to recognize the government of Cyprus, many in the EU feel that Turkey cannot become a member state if it does not recognize other EU members such as Cyprus. Turkey believes that the Cyprus issue should not affect EU membership, however, because of the disputed territorial claims with Turkey, Cyprus has tried to derail potential EU membership for Turkey at every avenue.
France has voiced the largest opposition to Turkey’s entry into the EU. France wanted the economic and monetary policy chapters blocked because that specific chapter could clear the way for eventual membership in the Euro, bring Turkey closer to membership, and is of significant political and symbolic significance. Newly elected French President Nikolas Sarkozy is making good on campaign promises to block Turkish EU membership. However, it was believed that he would wait until at least the fall to deal with Turkey so he could focus on other pressing EU matters. Ankara has already warned Sarkozy not to let his prejudices against Turkey drive his policy (Previous Report).
It is likely that Sarkozy is trying to stall the process until a summit in December 2007 where it is believe he wants to set limits for further EU enlargement. Sarkozy has suggested that instead of full membership Turkey accept a “privileged partnership” which Turkey has refused. France is opposed to Turkish membership because it believes Turkey is not European enough in geography or culture to be part of the EU. The most controversial issue is that Europe is afraid of letting an Islamic country into a predominately Christian Europe. There are also concerns that Turkey’s large population and poverty would further weigh down the EU. Already there is enlargement fatigue and disappointment-two recent entrants, Romania and Bulgaria are already failing to institute reforms accordingly.
Turkish Reaction
The Turkish Chief Negotiator, Ali Babican has said that Turkey will continue to integrate legislation regardless of the opening of the chapters that will bring them into line with EU demands. This is the diplomatic response. However, already there is a growing resentment in Turkey that the EU is treating Turkey unfairly. It is likely that this most recent setback will further incite that resentment bringing it close to a backlash. Prime Minister Erdogan has also recently stated that if the EU thinks negatively of Turkey then perhaps it should admit it and not waste each other’s time. Considering the Turkish general elections are less than a month away, it is expected that there will be some harsh rhetoric from Ankara on why this process has become so bogged down.
Future
We predict that unless the EU preliminary membership talks start to go forward, Ankara may break off negotiations at least temporarily.
Ankara has supporters in the EU (seven member states did protest the chapter exclusion), but it will continue to be a very hard road for Turkey’s ambitions to join the EU.
