According to a report published on June 4, 2007, Spanish intelligence services believe the Basque separatist group, ETA, is planning violent attacks in the near term. Basque regional government leader, Josu Jon Imaz echoed these concerns, pointing to recent arrests, documents seized and statements made by the group as a “bad harbinger,” and that he feared “for the worst.” Additionally, on May 27, 2007, municipal polls in the turbulent Basque region were marred by protests as radicals voiced anger at the judicial exclusion of ETA’s banned political wing, Batasuna. Civic lists and a new political party, Basque National Action (ANV), were also banned on the grounds both were connected to ETA and Batasuna. The results of the municipal election have magnified existing concerns that more ETA-inspired attacks are likely. Finally, on June 5, 2007, ETA issued a statement in a Basque-language newspaper officially calling off the unilateral ceasefire it declared in March 2006.
Election Indicates Internal Policy Debate; ETA Sympathizers Protest
On May 27, 2007, Spain held its first nationwide elections since Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero swept the conservative Popular Party (PP) out of power in a surprise win in March 2004.
In this latest round of elections, competition between the ruling Socialist party and the ideologically opposed conservative Popular Party took an unexpected turn leading to a PP municipal win. Popular Party (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy claimed a slim 35.67 percent victory over the ruling Socialists’ 34.95 percent. However, both parties claimed victory with the Socialists winning a slightly larger number of councilors although they gained approximately 1,500 votes fewer nationwide in a dry run for the general elections scheduled for spring 2008.
The recent polls came amid unrest in the Basque region. Low-level violence marred the days preceding the vote. On election day Basque regional police defused a homemade explosive device placed in front of a bank in the northern province of Navarra and claimed ETA-sympathizers threw Molotov cocktails at ATM machines in the town of Oiartzun. Separatists angered by the exclusion of lists deemed linked to ETA’s banned political wing Batasuna took to the streets. Spain’s constitutional court backed an earlier Supreme Court decision banning the Basque Nationalist Action (ANV), a newly established political party on the grounds it was connected to Batasuna and ETA, both banned since 2003.
A win by the PP could lead to an increase in ETA-inspired attacks as a change in the ruling majority may prompt a change in policy. For instance, prior to a December 30, 2006 car bombing attributed to the group, Prime Minister Zapatero had tried to achieve a negotiated settlement, a strategy the PP detested. To that end, PP leader Mariano Rajoy has continued to term the Socialist government’s current policy as “soft.”
Concern for Future Attacks
In a recent statement, Basque Nationalist Party leader, Josu Jon Imaz, asserted recent arrests, seized documents, and statements made by ETA as signs the group could be planning future attacks. In April 2007, ETA announced the absence of Basque separatists from the May 27, 2007 local polls would be, “taken into account.”
•Imaz also stated if ETA were to resume attacks it would likely do so not because of the court’s decision to ban political parties Batasuna and the newly created ANV, but instead in response to both the central and Basque national government’s refusal to strike a political agreement over the future of the Basque region.
Prime Minister Zapatero purportedly ceased dialogue with ETA when the group broke its ceasefire pledge on December 30, 2006. The incident disrupted months of attempts by the Spanish Socialist government to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Basque conflict.
ETA Resumes Fundraising
Further evidence indicating ETA may be gearing up for more attacks include fundraising letters distributed to Basque business leaders. On June 4, 2007, letters published in the Spanish press indicated the group had resumed fundraising. Letters calling for, “help towards the liberation and construction of Euskal Herria, or the ‘Great Basque Country,’” were distributed to business leaders in the region. Some Basque employers reported receiving such letters also in April 2007. Although the letters did not make direct threats, they request payment up to 150,000 euros in banknotes of 20, 50, and 100 euros for “reasons of security” and urge recipients to make a contribution to, “the future of our people.”
ETA Calls Off Ceasefire, Future Attacks Likely
On June 5, 2007, ETA issued a statement in a Basque-language newspaper officially calling off the March 22, 2006 ceasefire. Several politicians have reacted to the statement asserting that ETA is to blame for the breakdown in the peace process, first in December 2006 when they detonated a car bomb at Madrid’s international airport and now with this statement.
We believe future ETA-inspired attacks are likely. ETA’s announcement of a unilateral “permanent” ceasefire in 2006 initially raised hopes for an end to the nearly 40 years of ETA violence. The June 5, 2007, statement will likely reinvigorate ETA and ETA supporters who have been inactive to wage attacks.
We will see small-scale attacks bearing the hallmarks of ETA – chaotic violence with minimal casualties, in the near future.
