With the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s booming economy, Arab and Western governments are lining up to sign economic agreements with the Emirate governing council. In 2006, the UAE’s economic growth was 10.2 percent, while maintaining a stable unemployment rate of 2.4 percent. The keys to the UAE’s fast growing private sector economy are high oil revenues, foreign investment, available credit, and strong liquidity.
Questions concerning the sustainability of the UAE’s economic boom, however, have been raised due to the Emirates’ high level of dependency on its large expatriate workforce and oil revenues.
Demographics
When the UAE was founded in 1970, its population was 248,000. The UAE reached 7.6 percent population growth between 2002 and 2003 and is projected to reach 4.4 million by July 2007. Only 19 percent of the total population is native Emirati citizens. The remaining 81 percent of the population is primarily expatriate workers, of which 50 percent are South Asian, 23 percent are Arab or Iranian, and the remaining 8 percent are either Westerners or from East Asia. Because the majority of foreign workers immigrating to the UAE are young males, current population estimates show that 67.3 percent of the population is male and 62.5 percent of the population is between the ages of 15 and 44 years (known as a youth bulge).
Overall, the UAE’s population is increasing at an unsustainably high rate and creating an gender imbalance. However, despite the connection between large youth bulges and political instability, the UAE continues to experience an extended period of peace and stability. The saving graces for the UAE’s population figures are the Emirate’s low unemployment rate (high economic growth rate) and low domestic birth rate of 2.4 percent (slightly above replacement level).
Immigration Amnesty to End
In order to provide and maintain its foreign workforce, the UAE Ministry of Labor and Departments of Naturalization and Residency strives to manage its large immigration levels by administering work permits equal to the estimated level of demand and providing safe and healthy work environments. However, despite its efforts, the UAE currently houses over 100,000 illegal immigrants. These illegal immigrants are a concern for the UAE government not only because they were not included in the Ministry of Labor’s projected immigration goals, but also because they were not screened by UAE emigration and security personnel prior to entry.
In an effort to peacefully expedite the departure of these illegals, the UAE granted them temporary amnesty in January 2007 for six months. The six-month amnesty period is coming to a close, however, and a large number of illegal immigrants still remain in the Emirates. The UAE has left the exit doors open for illegals to leave, but will soon resume its pre-amnesty efforts to arrest and deport all remaining illegals. Thus far, only 35,000 illegal immigrants have left the Emirate under amnesty. Another 40,000 were arrested by immigration officials in an immigration crack down.
Future Threats
Until now, the UAE has not been subject to terrorist attacks nor has it been shown to be a hotbed for terrorist operations. With a large expatriate, predominantly young, male population and high levels of illegal immigration, the threat that the UAE will be a target for Islamic radicalism and terrorist recruitment remains high.
As recently as May 11, 2007, the UAE deported dozens of Pakistan citizens due to their established links to a radical Taliban cleric. However, despite the UAE’s efforts to police its large, fast growing population, the population’s composition and the rapid increase makes the situation in the UAE increasingly prone to future instability.
