In the often tense relationship between Turkey and the European Union (EU) over membership talks, the relationship between Turkey and France and Germany to a lesser respect has been the most contentious and acrimonious. While some EU member states have expressed some reservations about Turkey’s potential membership, both France and Germany have openly and vehemently protested Turkey’s suitability for membership. Relations have been further complicated by the French treatment of the Armenian genocide issue and Turkish immigrants in Germany.
In the last year, the preliminary EU accession talks hit a bumpy road with several articles of consideration being temporarily suspended. Despite some of these setbacks, the EU talks are still on track and some progress has been made. Turkey’s progress on pre-conditions for entry has also been acknowledged.
Both sides would agree however it has been a frustrating process. Turkey has openly claimed that particular European countries wish to exclude Turkey from the EU out of prejudice. This issue has been skirted in numerous discussions on reasons to exclude Turkey from the EU, but the Turkish government’s blunt accusation is historic because it supports what many people both inside and outside of Turkey have long suspected.
The Turkish government believes that Turkey’s potential membership should be debated and considered on the same qualifications as other applicants and not because of fear that Turkey is too different culturally and religiously. Both Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul have voiced strong rhetoric for French President elect, Nicolas Sarkozy and his administration. Gul has urged France to respect current membership agreements and has declined a Sarkozy inspired proposal to set up a Mediterranean Club as an alternative to full EU membership. Erdogan has stated that hostility to Turkey’s membership would foment anti-European sentiment in Turkey and damage bilateral relations. Erdogen further commented that Sarkozy has to overcome prejudice and rethink his stance on Turkey if the EU is truly not meant to be a “Christian club”.
Pressure on Sarkozy
It is likely that the Turkish government made these bold statements because it is an opportune time to send a message to the French government. While Sarkozy made it very clear during his campaign that he opposed EU membership for Turkey, he is also busy forming his new government and making the rounds as a new leader in France and in Europe as part of his vision to reinvigorate both France and Europe. Sarkozy has many things to address both in France and in Europe—focusing on pushing Turkey out of EU membership talks would indicate both petulance and a lack of prioritization at this stage.
However, with Turkey mounting an offensive about their expectations and concerns regarding EU membership, Sarkozy has been alerted that this issue will need to be addressed. It is likely that the Turkish government does not realistically believe that France will reverse its opinion on Turkey and the EU especially, since Sarkozy used Turkish EU membership as a campaign issue. Turkey is more worried that Sarkozy will try to impede or reverse the progress on the Turkey EU negotiations already made since he also made a pre-election declaration of breaking on-going accession negotiations with Turkey.
Chances for Changing Stance
It is difficult at this stage to determine if Sarkozy will resolutely continue France’s opposition to Turkey’s EU membership. It is possible that the motivation for the rhetoric espoused during the campaign was an attempt to drum up votes and that President-elect Sarkozy could tone down some of his campaign rhetoric and honor past commitments on the Turkey accession talks. Although German Chancellor Merkel is also opposed to Turkey joining the EU, she has pledged that Germany will honor past commitments. It is likely that France will look like the villain if it does not honor them as well. Interestingly enough, Sarkozy has appointed Socialist, Bernard Kouchner as the French Foreign Minister who is openly supportive of a Turkish EU bid and has publicly stated that he hopes to change Sarkozy’s mind on this issue. Yet, a newly appointed minister to the EU, has not ruled out a French veto to further EU talks.
Future of Turkey EU Membership
At the same time, a US State Department spokesman has stated that while the US does not interfere in EU business, the US strongly supports a Turkish EU bid. The US has already conveyed this notion to Chancellor Merkel and is likely to convey this sentiment to President Sarkozy at some point as well. As Sarkozy has pledged to mend ties with the US, it is possible he will at least listen to US views on the subject.
At the current time, French and Turkish diplomatic relation remains icy. France’s recognition of the Armenian genocide issue (Previous Report) and attempts to criminalize denial has had serious consequences for France’s diplomatic and military relations with Turkey. While all eyes are on Turkey’s current political crisis, Turkey has very artfully turned the spotlight back on Sarkozy’s fledgling government.
We anticipate that President-elect Sarkozy will try to temper the situation, but is unlikely to go back on his position any time soon. The EU is also likely observing how the current political crisis in Turkey unfolds before facilitating Turkey’s progress on ascension talks.
