The Egyptian resort city Sharm el-Sheikh recently hosted the world’s most powerful and influential government leaders from the Middle East for a two-day Iraq conference . On the opening day of the conference, May 3, 2007, United Nations (UN) Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki introduced their “International Compact with Iraq,” a new five-year security plan. The five-year plan is a partnership between Iraq and the International Community in which the international community would provide financial and economic assistance toward further incorporating Iraq into the international economy. In turn, the Iraqi government pledged to pass power sharing and oil wealth distribution laws, as well as broad based economic reforms .
In the course of discussions, Kuwait forgave Iraq of its US $15 billion debt, Egypt forgave Iraq’s US $800 million debt and the UK donated US $200 million toward Iraq’s reconstruction program. Saudi Arabia stopped short of forgiving Iraq’s debt saying they were still in negotiations with Iraq. The US and the Iraqi government had hoped that 80 percent of Iraqi debt would be forgiven, but fell short of reaching the goal.
The second and final day of the conference, discussion revolved around three primary themes:
• the Iraqi government took responsibility for fostering national reconciliation;
• Iraq’s neighbors affirmed their desire to facilitate the creation of an environment in which Iraqi national reconciliation could take place, in particular with regard to their roles in securing borders with Iraq and energy provisions; and
• the international community confirmed its commitment to the International Compact and to supporting Iraq’s right to a freely elected democratic government.
All in attendance avowed that a secure and stable Iraqi government would foster regional and international security. Toward reaching this goal, attendees agreed that working groups should be established to monitor the status of border security, energy supply, and issues related to refugees.
Sideline Discussions
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Syrian Foreign Minister (FM) Walid al-Moalem met for the first time to discuss Iraq. The meeting between the US and Syria’s top diplomats was a historic gesture in which the two nations recognized their need to work together in Iraq. FM al-Moalem described the meeting with Secretary Rice as a “frank and constructive” conversation concerning Iraq issues solely.
The US expressed interest in seeing greater cooperation from Syria in stopping the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq. Future discussions between the two parties will be contingent on Syrian progress toward reaching established benchmarks and security commitments.
Omitted Discussions
Saudi Arabian King Abdullah refused a meeting request from Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki on May 2, 2007, prior to the conference start. A meeting between PM al-Maliki and Saudi’s Foreign Minister was also absent, which is significant as al-Maliki met with the foreign ministers from all other attendee countries. King Abdullah’s refusal to meet with PM al-Maliki and Saudi Arabia’s rejection of all US and Iraqi attempts to persuade Saudi Arabia to forgive Iraq’s US $15 to $18 billion Saddam era debt is evidence of the Sunni Arab Gulf’s displeasure with the Iraqi government’s close relationship with Iran and lack of progress toward inclusion of Sunni Iraqis into the government.
Also absent from the conference was the much rumored meeting between US and Iranian officials.
Iraq’s Future Lies With Iraq
Throughout the conference the resonating sentiment among attendees was that the Iraqi government must give its neighbors something with which to work. The Sunni Arab Gulf, in particular Saudi Arabia, and Egypt are displeased with the Iraqi government’s lack of progress toward national reconciliation. Despite PM al-Maliki’s promises to pass laws reversing de-Baathification, proportionally distributing oil wealth, and creating greater power-sharing equality within the government , little to no progress has been made.
Since PM al-Maliki first promised to pass reforms at a March 10, 2007, Iraq Conference , Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shia leader of the Mahdi Army, withdrew his representatives from Parliament, the Sunni bloc (the Tawafuq) has threatened to withdraw from Parliament, and Kurdish MPs vowed to oppose the Oil Law, which would set the proportions upon which oil revenues and governance authority will be distributed.
Notwithstanding PM al-Maliki’s pledges to bring about change, Iraqi ministers refuse to bend to outside pressure or recognize the political urgency.
A Way Forward
The May 2007 conference witnessed historic economic and security commitments from both neighboring countries and the international community, but the overall resounding sentiment was that it is time for the Iraqi government to be accountable for its political progress. Sunni Arab governments remain concerned about Iran’s influence over the Shia dominated government and will continue to support Sunni Iraqis. If the Iraqi government does not pass the required reforms, it will lose vital international aid and debt relief commitments.
The Shia Iraqi ministers remain unyielding in their stance and refuse to pass de-Baathification laws. In the coming days, Iraq will witness increased international pressure, but doubt remains that the Iraqi parliament will meet the international community’s demands. Currently, PM al-Maliki lacks the political power to force the passage of necessary reforms.
In the coming months, little will change on the Iraqi political front. As a result, US-Iraq relations will become increasingly strained. In a statement following the close of the Iraq conference, US officials said the US military would adhere to a September 2007 overview timetable.
The September timetable for review of the Baghdad Security Plan is also a timeframe for the review of Iraq’s political progress. If the Iraqi government has not passed the necessary reforms by September 2007, the Iraqi government’s inability to pass government reforms may be the deciding factor for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.
