On April 21, 2007, a Cairo court sentenced Egyptian-Canadian, Mohammed Essam Ghoneim al-Attar to 15 years in jail for spying on Egyptians and Arabs in Canada and Turkey. Al-Attar allegedly spied on the personal and public affairs of Middle Easterners for the Israeli intelligence group, the Mossad, in exchange for money. His conviction was based on a confession, which the defendant claims was extracted by torture. The three Israelis who allegedly conspired with al-Attar were also convicted and were tried in absentia. Al-Attar’s sentence came days after Egyptian authorities arrested a nuclear engineer, Mohammed Sayyid Saber Ali under similar espionage accusations. Ali was allegedly stealing and selling important documents from one of the nation’s nuclear reactors, Inshas, to Israel, by way of two Mossad agents, one from Japan and the other from Ireland. The Israeli government has denied its involvement in either case and claimed to have only learned of these developments from media reporting.
Given the recent civil unrest over the controversial referendum vote last month and the increasing demand for nuclear energy in the region, the Egyptian government has been under a political spotlight and has endured pressure from many international state and non-state actors (Previous Report). Therefore, we believe it is important to note the timing in which these allegations and arrests materialized in Egypt, and call attention to the idea that although these cases of espionage and treason would greatly deflect the spotlight from some of Egypt’s political affairs, they may work against the government’s interests in rebuilding its nuclear energy program.
Shifting the Spotlight May Hinder Egypt’s Nuclear Program
In September 2006, President Hosni Mubarak’s son, Gamal Mubarak, (rumored to be grooming himself for the presidency in 2010), announced Egypt’s interest in reigniting the nation’s nuclear energy program that has been dormant for 20 years (Previous Report). The announcement before the National Democratic Party stirred positive emotions within the party, the nation, and the region, at large. Within months, other strong and competitive Arab governments publicly expressed their interests to embark on a peaceful nuclear program, as well. Prompted by concerns of Iran’s nuclear program progress and Israel’s reputable nuclear facilities, nations like Egypt, Algeria, Yemen, and more recently, Jordan, all have expressed haste in their need for other energy sources (Previous Report, Previous Report).
Egypt is still in the process of reigniting their program and has made some significant headway to that effect. The recent spy cases may injure Egypt’s ability to continue moving forward in the nuclear process, especially if their program is deemed easily penetrable. It is understandable that Egypt would want to expose such cases of espionage, which would greatly credit the government’s justice department at a time when it is under great scrutiny; however, the consequences of these supposed leaks could potentially stall Egypt’s forward mobility in its nuclear energy program.
Forecast
We do not believe that these cases will alter the condition of Egypt’s nuclear development project to the point of a complete standstill or provide a rejection of the project, nor will it alter the region’s goals for nuclear power. We believe that the case may damage Egypt’s reputation of employing strong and impenetrable security measures to guard its nuclear energy program. This may also inspire other regional nations to press on with their respective programs if other states believe they have a competitive advantage over Egypt. Nonetheless, we believe that Egypt will overcome these allegations of espionage in an effort to push forward with its nuclear energy aspirations.
