2007 has the potential to be a watershed year for the African continent, specifically: political reform, civil energy development projects, combating terrorism, redevelopment and stability in the Horn, curbing ongoing piracy threats in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, and fostering the democratic process. Should these key issues be resolved within the year, other priorities?equally important, yet secondary in prioritization–include curtailing starvation, finding potable water, bringing war criminals to justice, providing education, poverty amelioration, AIDS prevention, legitimate excavation of natural resources, and ending corruption. 2007 will be a long, tumultuous year for many countries that portends few of the first tier of measure being implemented, let alone the second tier.
Political Reform
In 2007, several significant constitutional amendments and referendums will dominate the political scene in Egypt and Algeria .
? Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak plans to amend 34 articles in the constitution that are aimed at democratization, devolving presidential power to Parliament, and ushering in a new electoral law. Parliament vowed to support the President?s initiatives. The electoral law is likely geared to pave the way for Mubarak?s son, Gamal, to take his place.
Past promises of democratization and liberalization have proved empty. In order to ensure that these ?new? initiatives will materialize, TRC expects the successor-president, Gamal Mubarak, to push for the enforcement of the amendments. Gamal will run credibility-boosting campaigns in 2007 to set the stage for hispresidential aspirations.
Conversely, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will pass a constitutional referendum in 2007 that will consolidate more power to the presidency.
? Bouteflika plans to abrogate the two-year Presidential term limit and extend his mandate from five to seven years. The referendum also creates a Vice President post, named by the President, and will allow the President to designate the Prime Minister.
Bouteflika sprinkles these amendments with various democratic promises of the right to demonstrate, equality of chances, freedom of religion, and others.
Energy Development
Iran?s (County Profile) vehement push to expand its nuclear capabilities has inspired North African countries to pursue the nuclear energy option.
? Egypt, Algeria, Morocco , and Tunisia have all shown interest in expanding or building a civilian nuclear energy program. In 2007, Egypt and Algeria will push forward with material developments
? Algeria and Oman have scheduled talks about energy options; however, Algeria seems to be pushing for talks with Moscow.
Egypt and other North African countries can make a justifiable argument that they need cheap, safe energy for their expanding economies and growing populations, especially as oil prices increase.
Terrorism
TRC expects the terrorism scene in North Africa and the Horn of Africa to intensify in 2007. The North African al-Qaeda groups, the Union of the Arab Maghreb (Group Profile forthcoming) and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC; Group Profile) are of major concern. These groups will continue to spread their influence and recruit fighters throughout the region. This will result in an increase of terrorist arrests and deaths in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, as governments amplify their counter-terrorism measures in 2007.
? The GSPC will likely materialize an attack against French tourists in Algeria in 2007. European cells of the group will likely stage, or attempt an in Western Europe, probably France (see 2007 Projections for Europe).
? Ethnic North African western Europeans will be found and arrested in North Africa for their affiliation and collaboration with terrorist groups.
While there will be little terrorist cell-related activity in Egypt, attempts to smuggle explosives into the Gaza Strip will continue.
The terrorist scene in Somalia will not be as intense as initially perceived at the outset of the war and in the months leading to the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts? (SCIC) defeat. With the scrapping of the SCIC, Somali, Ethiopian, American, and soon-to-enter African Union (AU) and United Nation (UN) peacekeeping forces will be pursuing free radicals, former SCIC Islamists, and al-Qaeda members.
After al-Qaeda?s number-two, Ayman al-Zawahiri?s call on Muslims to fight ?the slaves of America? (Ethiopia ) in Somalia, the number of foreign fighters in Somalia will increase. Former SCIC Islamists will organize guerrilla campaigns against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian forces for the majority of 2007. There will not be a influx of al-Qaeda fighters to Somalia since their main motivation to fight in Somalia?archenemy Ethiopia–will begin withdrawing its troops in the next few months. There will not be a safe haven for al-Qaeda terrorists in Somalia in 2007.
Conversely, terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa is of the traditional group-versus-state brand. While it can spill over into neighboring countries due to ethnic diffusion, it rarely broadens beyond the group?s ideology. This is unlike al-Qaeda -style entrepreneurial terrorism elsewhere.
The Sudanese government sponsors the Arab Janjaweed militia?s campaign of genocide against African blacks in Darfur. New UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon prioritized resolving the Darfur crisis by making his first official trip in late January a meeting with President Omar al-Bashir. Bashir recently proclaimed his support for a UN-AU hybrid force in Darfur, although he remains opposed to any large-scale UN operation there; he has vacillated on his decisions in the past. Bashir?s concurrence coincided with international threats of sanctions and flight ban over Darfur (a move that would also hinder government bombing campaigns). Aid organizations have felt the brunt of the declining security environment; 12 workers were killed in the last six months of 2006, 30 compounds have been attacked, and some NGOs have suspended operations. Unlike other terrorist groups in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Janjaweed are accused of spilling into CAR and Chad , both of which are accused of supporting anti-government rebels, to chase their victims down and broaden their campaign. Various factions?like Justice and Equality Movement (JEM; Group Profile)–may not be party to any regional peace agreement. This conflict is likely to stalemate in 2007 and be a pervasive problem in central Africa in years to come.
MEND is the group to watch in Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically the Niger Delta of Nigeria, in 2007. While some suspect MEND has links to al-Qaeda or other mujahideen due to the increasing sophistication of their attacks and their interest in affecting global oil prices, such contentions seem unlikely for Nigeria, yet resolving the devolving security climate with reconstruction aid, infrastructure improvements, and creating a smaller footprint of foreign oil firms in the Delta is no less important. MEND has had a solid year to practice and perfect their tradecraft.
? Not only can they nab workers from secure housing facilities, they can snatch them adeptly from seaborne vessels. Their attack pace and lethality increased throughout 2006, with two casualties in early 2007 by suspected MEND rebels. While they released one hostage in a goodwill effort , they nabbed six others in mid-January.
In the lead-up to the April presidential elections, MEND is likely to step up attacks on oil facilities and government security personnel and infrastructure in an attempt to bring attention to the plight and poverty of the local populace, which are unlikely to be registered for the presidential vote and thus will be prompted to retaliate for the perceived and pervasive apathy. A military response?a real possibility–will only escalate violence, as was seen in a commando-style rescue attempt that resulted in a dead hostage . Obasanjo is unlikely to resolve MEND?s grievances, so they will be waiting anxiously to understand a new president?s intentions and priorities. The group?s leadership threatened for 2007: ?We will take as many hostages as we wish, when we wish and there is clearly nothing the Nigerian government can do? (source). And, with an influx of millions of dollars from a botched rescue attempt in December 2006, MEND has a sufficient bounty to fund their activities well beyond 2007.
Redevelopment and Stability in the Horn
TRC expects Ethiopian forces to have pulled out of Somalia by mid-2007. African Union peacekeeping forces will enter Somalia before Ethiopia withdraws its troops; however, they will likely stay throughout the year. The TFG?s struggle for credibility and stability will continue in 2007. The government will persistently co-opt warlords, who have the influential capacity to rally their tribesmen and clans together to support the government and to disarm.
? The SCIC will try to make a comeback and will succeed at gaining support from guerrilla fighters, but they will fail in establishing themselves as a ruling body, as they did for six months before their defeat earlier this month.
? In 2007, the TFG will mainly struggle for acceptance and fight insurgent attacks by rebel Islamists. However, the TFG will not gain the credibility it needs until Ethiopian troops pull out of Somalia. The sooner the Ethiopians withdraw, the sooner the TFG can work to establish a functional level of stability.
The African Union plans to commit a peacekeeping force of 8,000 troops to Somalia. Uganda already committed 1,500. As the security environment improves, other Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) countries will commit more troops. Although the situation on the ground will improve when Ethiopian forces leave, Islamists may consider AU, UN, and IGAD peacekeepers to be aligned with US and Ethiopia, in which case, peacekeeping forces may be susceptible to attacks.
Eritrea and Ethiopia border problems will continue in 2007. The UN Security Council plans to cut its peace force that monitors the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The current mandate is set for renewal on January 31. Heated dialogue and concerns over border issues are likely to commence in mid to late 2007.
Piracy
The threat of piracy off the coast of Somalia is likely to rise in 2007. During the six months the SCIC controlled most of Somalia, including the country?s busiest seaport town, Kisamayo, pirate activity was relatively low. The SCIC did not tolerate criminal activity, such as piracy, and even succeeded in rescuing a ship hijacked by pirates in November 2006. Since the SCIC?s heavihandedness will disappear, pirates will likely resurface in 2007. The nation?s instability is the quintessential environment for maritime piracy to flourish. As a result, Yemeni authorities must also intensify anti-piracy measures in 2007.
Elections
Two presidential elections are at the forefront of the subcontinent?s priorities in 2007, as the outcomes could alter the political and security landscapes of two key nations radically. The most influential or potentially destabilizing elections will be:
? Kenya?s election is likely to be before the traditional December timeframe, mostly because President Mwai Kibaki, who was elected democratically, ignored opposition parties and somewhat dictatorially, yet legally, appointed nine Electoral Commissioners in early January 2007, an indicator that Kibaki is currying favor with commissioners to sway election results. Similarly, district officers and commissioners received raises, another indicator of influencing the vote. The election, whenever it takes place, is likely to be enveloped by violence, as was foreshadowed in the presidential by-elections in July 2006. Any violence will adversely impact the tourism industry, a key growth driver in Kenya.
o While Kibaki is the chairman of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region, his ouster would have little impact on creating peace via these organizations in the region.
? Nigeria is likely the most contentious presidential election, to conclude on April 21, in Africa this year as witnessed by the EU?s substantial delegation already in place to observe. The dysfunctional democracy and the rampant corruption of President Olusegun Obasanjo?s administration is rife for change. Voter registration ends on January 30, and those who remain unregistered?likely predominantly in the explosive Niger Delta–will likely not go quietly.
o 2006 was a volatile year with numerous kidnappings of oil workers and assassinations of presidential contenders, and 2007 is likely to follow at the same or an increased pace, as none of the socio-economic concerns within the Delta region have been addressed or resolved.
Obasanjo had alluded to running again, although constitutionally his tenure should conclude. He faces an untold number of candidates in this first hand over from one civilian government to another (WAR Report), and election rigging, intimidation, and voter fraud are concerning. A collective amnesia of Nigeria?s sordid, violent past of General Sani Abacha and his predecessors somehow excuses Obasanjo?s self-righteousness, abuse of power, and power-mongering. In fact, Vanguard calls his camp ?a crop of self-centered people? who ?[glorify] mediocrity, deceit, double standards and intolerance in governance? and who intend ?to stay in office for life? (source). No matter who wins, the two key issues for the next president to resolve are: 1) instability in the Niger Delta, and 2) socio-economic improvements for Nigerians.
Other, politically stable, and democratic presidential elections under civilian rule are also anticipated in Mali , Senegal , Sierra Leone , and Mauritania . While there is hope for the democratic process across the subcontinent and lessons should be learned from these successful democratic institutions, mainstream contentions are that many incumbent leaders want to be life presidents and will retain power through force.
