Prime Minister Tony Blair has called for Britain to continue their nuclear rearming, calling it ?the ultimate insurance? in a time of new and increased threats. He proposed for Britain to maintain its nuclear weapons system as a deterrent until at least the 2040s by developing their current Trident nuclear program, which is set to end around 2024.
Blair argued that the world conditions have changed, and although the threat of the Cold War no longer exists, there are several states that have acquired or are seeking to obtain nuclear weapons. These states?North Korea , Iran , and Libya for example–are not deemed as direct threats to the UK; however, the possibility of their use of nuclear weaponry cannot be ruled out. Moreover, he said the newest and greatest threat in contemporary history is posed by international terrorists who seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD). ?States sponsoring nuclear terrorism from their soil”, he argued, is in fact a likely scenario as it has been witnessed before.
Blair?s proposal was met by opposition within the Labour Party and Parliament, yet a survey by The Independent of MPs found that Blair gained 50 percent approval within the Labour Party, while 39 percent opposed retaining the deterrent. The opposition went beyond the legal and ethical interpretations of international non-proliferation agreements and addressed the very fact that terrorism represents the biggest threat to the UK today. Labour MP and former minister Michael Meacher questioned the justification of maintaining a deterrent in the post-Cold War era, but put the emphasis on the fact that the move would take away from the money available to spend on counter-terrorism (source). He also argued that it would restrict the spending on energy security and conventional defense as well as on areas like health and education.
Blair has committed to a Parliament vote in March 2007. It remains to be seen if Blair will bring the vote home in three months, which will bring significant repercussions for the nation?s foreign policy. The insurance policy Blair refers to revolves around three main components:
1. Britain?s national security will be upheld in the face of existing potential threats from rogue states and will help to deter others that may obtain nuclear arsenals in the coming decades.
2. Britain will retain its leading role in the world arena as they will continue to hold a front position in future strategic policy-making.
3. Although the likelihood of terrorist groups acquiring long-range missiles is small to non-existent, the intent and ambition has been documented. Blair?s caution against rogue states providing terrorist groups with WMDs merits real consideration.
A re-armament by the UK will unquestionably bring international consequences, but the country is unlikely to draw back especially since fellow nuclear powers have stated their commitment to preserving their nuclear capacity.
