Rebels, known as Union des forces democratiques pour le ressemblement (UFDR), from the Central African Republic (CAR; Country Profile) have been battling government forces since the October 30 capture of Birao and have yielded notional successes in the northeast. They captured a key northern town, Ndele, at the end of November, but the military recaptured it on December 3, along with various other cities, leaving the rebels with only Ouadda-Djalle as their stronghold. According to rebel spokesman Captain Diego Albator Yao, the rebels had left Ndele before the army?s arrival. Their goal, according to Yao, is Bangui, the country?s capital in the south, and likely occupying diamond-rich Bria as well. The rebels demand to meet with President Francois Bozize?s administration to address charges by the rebels of corruption, mismanagement, and favoritism of ethnic groups, all very likely legitimate allegations to which Bozize has yet to respond, and power sharing talks. However, the UN issued the following statement: ?The precarious security situation resulting from the abuses committed by the rebel movements and militias in the Central African Republic?continues to be a source of major concern to the international community? (source). This ongoing battle has left CAR residents caught between rebels and government fighters, both of which trust no one, burn villages of suspected sympathizers, and allegedly commit atrocities against the civilian populations.
Civilians can either stay in the heat of battle or flee to neighboring countries. As Secretary-General Kofi Annan said, ?The situation in the Chad/Central African Republic/Sudan border area is fraught with danger. It could destabilize all of Central Africa. The international community must step up its efforts to effectively secure the borders in that area? (source). Some 90,000 are internally displaced people who have opted to move out of rebel fighting zones. But, the CAR is bordered by two conflict zones: Chad and Sudan . Thus far, approximately, 46,000 people have fled to Chad, which was instrumental in Bozize?s 2003 coup. Many refugees?upward of 5,000–hid in the bush ?to escape violence by the regular army?[under] deplorable conditions? (source), while the female and children refugees have fled into Amdafok, Sudan for safe harbor, ironically, given the stability concerns there. They can also flee to Cameroon , which has reported a mass influx of 30,000, particularly of the Mbororo nomadic tribe.
Finally, general internal security is abysmal with a resurgence of violence by rogue soldiers, armed gangs, kidnappers, and road blockades.
Sudan?s Involvement
Bozize?s administration contends that the rebels are supported by neighboring Sudan, which denies the accusation. UN envoy Ibrahim Fall has no proof of allegations of support coming from Darfur but contends that it is possible, saying: ?My personal belief is yes, there are linkages? (source). Similarly, some CAR diplomats concur that UFDR rebels have been operating from Darfur with the Sudanese government?s support. Whether Sudanese rebels were sent to destabilize the CAR is unclear, but the regional instability has directly propped up the UFDR. Until order can be achieved in Sudan, these insurgencies will continue to have safe haven to operate. However, should Sudan be invaded as a reprisal for perceived support of CAR and/or Chadian insurgencies, as was threatened by the Chadian Prime Minister in mid-November, a regional war is likely.
France?s Involvement
France , the CAR?s former colonial benefactor, became involved in the growing crisis when the UFDR overran various towns in late October. It grew its presence to 300 soldiers to aid the Bozize government in quelling the rebel offensive and security its borders with Sudan and Chad, where it also has a military presence. According to Yao, six French fighter jets and four helicopters were involved in strikes against Birao that sent civilians fleeing for Sudan and against Ndele on November 30. The French military would not comment on the air strikes, although BBC reported French Mirages attacking rebel camps, and contended that it was involved only in logistics and intelligence with the intention of fostering regional stability and order.
Conclusion
The future of the CAR is grim at best. Its relatively small army has little training or capability over the insurgency, despite promised aid from France and the Central African Monetary and Economic Community (CEMAC). The discovery of oil in parts of western Sudan and southern Chad?and possibly in northern CAR–will exacerbate tensions and power grabbing in oil-rich regions. The external meddling and interference?mostly from Sudan–are likely to continue, flaming the domestic conflict and pitting government forces against the insurgency. In what has become an all too frequent reportage throughout Africa, the civilian population has gotten caught in the crosshairs and has suffered the consequences of both sides? aggression.
