The cease-fire reached between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in conjunction with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert?s overture for peace presents a viable opportunity for progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In resisting calls for an expanded Gaza offensive and emphasizing the diplomatic approach, the Israeli leadership is acknowledging a military solution in the Palestinian Territories is illusory.
Furthermore, the sincerity with which Israel is approaching the Palestinian issue is a direct by-product of its growing concern over an increasingly powerful and assertive Iran . To this end, Israel is actively seeking the support of moderate Arab states inclined to block Iran?s regional influence but to also see the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Stress on Arab State Involvement
Substantively, there was little new in Olmert?s overture. Israel is willing to work with a Palestinian government that follows Quartet guidelines (renounce terror, abide by past agreements, recognize Israel) and secures the release of IDF Cpl. Shalit . In return, Olmert will meet with Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas for ?real, open, genuine and serious dialogue,? release numerous Palestinian prisoners, and work toward ending the economic siege of the Palestinian Authority.
In noteworthy remarks, Olmert thanked Arab states (Saudi Arabia , Egypt , and Jordan ) that he characterized as working to reduce violence in the region. He also praised sections of the Saudi Peace Initiative (aka Arab League Peace Plan 2002) and stated he will seek the assistance of these states in negotiations with the Palestinians.
International Political Context
For Israel, gaining the support of moderate (Sunni) Arab states is critical to deterring the regional influence of (Shiite) Persian Iran, a country on its way to acquiring nuclear weapons capability and whose President called for Israel to be ?wiped off the map.? In this regard, Israel is a natural ally of the Arab states that likewise fear the revolutionary ideology and increased power projection of Iran into the Middle East.
In seeking to consolidate its power and overthrow the Lebanese national government, Iran?s proxy in Lebanon?Hezbollah –has provided an additional impetus to Israel?s peace overture. Should Hezbollah succeed, Israeli officials anticipate a resumption of its summer conflict in Lebanon in the near future. A more manageable Palestinian front and the support of Arab states would ease Israel?s tasks in the event of a renewed war with Hezbollah.
The US, Israel?s strongest ally, is also actively courting the assistance of these Arab states in promoting a regional effort to help Iraq avert civil war and quell a strengthening insurgency. In exchange for their increased engagement in Iraq, the Sunni Arab states have made it clear to the US they must see progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which they view as the core cause of violence in the region. Thus, the US will begin to take a more pro-active role in encouraging Israel to work sincerely toward peace negotiations.
Pitfalls Remain
On the Palestinian front, the militants have launched intermittent rocket-fire but have generally held to the cease-fire. Additionally, Hamas political leader in Damascus, Khaled Meshal, has uncharacteristically endorsed a six-month window for Palestinian officials to negotiate with Israel.
Should the Palestinians form a unity government of technocrats whose platform toward Israel resembles the Quartet guidelines, the US and Israel will likely end the economic siege that has paralyzed the Palestinian Authority. Unfortunately, Fatah and Hamas officials have, thus far, failed to do so, continuing to squabble over candidates for various ministerial positions. While the current regional and international political environment is pressuring Israel toward diplomacy and accommodation, it will take only one large scale attack by militants to derail the momentum and viability of the present opportunity for progress.
