Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) supreme leader in Somalia , authorized suicide attacks targeting prominent landmarks in Kenya and Ethiopia . The threat ?specifically mention[s] the execution of suicide explosions in prominent landmarks within Kenya and Ethiopia,? (source). While no targets were identified by name, possible targets could be: shopping centers, international hotels, large corporate offices, public transit infrastructure (airports, train and bus terminals, ports), and/or embassies.
The declaration came one day after negotiations between the internationally recognized interim government in Somalia and the ICU collapsed, precipitating a general belief that a regional war is likely in the near-term. The Ethiopian government, as the primary military and financial backer of the Somali interim government, will certainly become engaged in any general conflict that ensues. According to Ethiopia?s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, ?[al-Qaeda elements in Somalia] represent a direct threat first to Somalia and the Somali people, second to the region and Ethiopia, and lastly to the international community. When they control the whole of Somalia it would be very na?ve to assume that they will mend their ways, cease to be terrorists and become very civilized?? After Ethiopia pushed into Somalia, the ICU called for Jihad against Ethiopia. Similarly, the Eritrean government , as the primary supporter of the ICU, will become militarily involved should the Ethiopian government openly attack Islamist forces. The US has sided with Ethiopia, providing them weaponry and loans, and has supported anti-ICU group Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counterterrorism (ARPCT) financially. Peace talks sponsored by the Arab League in Khartoum, Sudan have yielded very little.
Kenya, which borders Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan, has remained a relatively minor regional player throughout the conflict. Kenya?s President Mwai Kibaki had favored peacekeeping forces in Somalia; though, he may be reconsidering his posture. Yet, the ICU took the port city of Kismayo, near northeast Kenya, last month, causing a potentially destabilizing influx of refugees to Kenya. Waves of refugees?estimated at 1,000 per day and many armed for war–could cause ripple effects throughout eastern Africa. Disarmament will prove challenging, but a black market hub for arms from Somalia to regional groups like Uganda?s LRA could emerge if such trade is not quashed rapidly. Further, Kenya?s open support of the Ethiopian government and its continued criticism of Islamist forces could encourage suicide attacks within Kenya as well. A deadly suicide campaign in Kenya would provoke reprisal attacks against Islamist forces, plunging the entire Horn of Africa region into conflict.
Somali Islamist fighters have not historically engaged in acts of suicide terrorism. It remains to be determined if Aweys and the ICU possess the necessary cadres to perpetrate such attacks. But, recalling the harrowing August 7, 1998 East Africa Embassy bombings (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident) and its links to al-Qaeda , two subsequent attacks in Kenya in 2002 (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident) and their links to Somali AIAI , and a failed dual plot on Nairobi in 2004, Kenya as a target for terrorism from beyond its borders is not all that unrealistic. And, considering that al-Qaeda has long wanted to establish a base of operation in Africa, which is rife with poverty, instability, and lawlessness, operating out of ICU strongholds in Somalia would not be unimaginable.
US government has advised US expatriates in Kenya and Ethiopia to avoid prominent landmarks, and Ambassador Michael Ranneberger confirmed a High Alert. This report will likely do damage to the recovering Kenyan tourism economy, although a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference will go on in Nairobi as scheduled. The alert will hopefully underscore to Kenyans that their country, too, is targeted by radical Islam and requires vigilance from the security apparatus and the citizenry, alike. This means that Kenya must take a firm, unequivocal stance regarding Somalia: stemming the influx of weapons and refugees, disavowing ICU?s Aweys? control, and ultimately shoring up power and influence for President Abdullahi Ahmed. However, the likelihood of a successful suicide attack in Kenya remains relatively low.
