Hezbollah is calling for the formation of a new Lebanese unity government that will enhance the organization?s political power, and the group has threatened to unleash destabilizing street demonstrations if its demands are unmet. Hezbollah?s political push is timed to both maximize the momentum of its popularity following the war with Israel and counter the strengthening UNIFIL/Lebanese Army presence in its seat of power in southern Lebanon .
Hezbollah will likely reach a favorable compromise with the anti-Syrian bloc that is in control of the Lebanese national government, the March 14 coalition?whereby both sides can claim some political victory. A less likely outcome is that this governing coalition?backed strongly by western powers–will take a stand and rebuff Hezbollah, a position that could lead to explosive, sectarian strife in Lebanon.
Why Now?
Hezbollah seeks to comprise a third of the Lebanese Cabinet that would provide them veto power over national government policy. That degree of influence will become critical in the near future, as the Lebanese government forms policy on the Shiite militia?s armed status and determines a level of cooperation with an international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri , to which Hezbollah?s patron Syria is likely complicit.
Hezbollah distrusts the March 14 coalition. Previously, Hezbollah accused their officials of acting in the interests of the US and Israel and fears those combined forces will use a strengthened UNIFIL and Lebanese Army to make a forcible attempt to disarm Hezbollah. In response, the Hezbollah leadership has warned publicly it could transform Lebanon into Afghanistan or Iraq, but more importantly, it has taken the watershed decision to fight back politically in Beirut. In short, Hezbollah?s leadership must use the leverage of its domestic and regional acclaim to either remake the national government in an advantageous manner or paralyze it from acting against Hezbollah interests.
Watershed Decision
With Hezbollah?s popularity at an all time high in Lebanon and support for a new unity government polling at 70% (source), it is unlikely the fragile ruling coalition will risk refusing Hezbollah outright. The threat of ensuing demonstrations and counter-demonstrations risk plunging the country back into intense civil strife. A potential compromise could see the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud removed from power?a long time March 14 goal–in exchange for Hezbollah?s Christian ally, the Free Patriotic Movement receiving multiple seats in the Lebanese Cabinet. The real haggling will come over the percentage of these Hezbollah-affiliated seats.
If Hezbollah must face disarmament, then the group intends to surrender its weapons to a government under its control. Yet, as the defenders of Lebanese Shiite community and a power player in the national government, Hezbollah will become responsible and ultimately accountable for improving their plight. Historically, the group has refrained from using its considerable clout to pressure the national government (or the Syrian leadership previously occupying Lebanon) into reforming a domestic political structure that discriminates against its Shiite constituency, in exchange for a fiefdom in southern Lebanon and the right to arm and lead a resistance movement against Israel (source). Changing this underlying political dynamic, in place for over 20 years, will be a drastic alteration of the Lebanese political climate.
