Despite a great deal of apathy from Serb voters on a new constitution for Serbia following its official legal separation from Montenegro , the get-out-and-vote campaign by the government and the Serbian Christian Orthodox Church seems to have succeeded with 51.6% of the eligible voting population voting. For the referendum on the new constitution to be valid, at least 50% of the eligible population had to vote. Over the two-day voting period, it was questionable whether this margin would be met. However, in the final six hours of eligible voting time, officials believe that more than 20% of the population voted. While most of the political parties were supportive of the constitution, the opposition Liberal Party made claims of fraud in a last minute push to defeat the referendum.
The narrowness of the margin in voting is a close call for the government of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica. Had the referendum failed, Serbia and its government would have faced political uncertainties, but general elections are now likely slated for December. The constitution has some 200 articles ranging from issues such as abolishing the death penalty, banning human cloning, and other guarantees for human rights. While Serbian officials believe that this constitution and the Serbian state is based on European standards and values (hinting at future aspirations to join the European Union), the constitution has been criticized as being too authoritarian and giving too much power to Parliament. Strangely, however, there was little criticism by the general public in Serbia. The lightening rod issue, or perhaps the galvanizing issue, in the constitution is the assertion that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia.
Kosovo
The Kosovo issue and corresponding nationalist emotions in Serbia are considered by many as the motivating issue for the get-out-and-vote campaign. But, that Kosovo cannot become an independent state is also a provocative action by the Serbian state, politely codified in law, and agreed to by the population. That this referendum has taken place shortly before a decision is to be handed down by the UN on Kosovo?s final status is not coincidental and is meant to shake up or delay the process. A decision on Kosovo?s status may be delayed until 2007 so Serbia?s issues can be considered more fully. If a decision is made on Kosovo that is against Serbia?s wished, then ultranationalists may gain power in the December elections and cause trouble in the region.
The ultimate fear is that conflict could be re-ignited in the region between Serbia and Kosovo. However, the problem with delaying any decisions on Kosovo is that both sides have firmly drawn their positions in the sand. The majority Kosovar Albanians have made it clear that nothing short of independence is acceptable for Kosovo. Ironically, they were not invited nor were they interested in voting on the constitutional referendum. The Serbian government even before this referendum clearly stated that even though they aspire to European Union membership, they do not believe that membership conditions would include concessions on territory, namely Kosovo.
External factors must also be considered if Kosovo is granted independence. Other enclaves in conflicted areas may demand the same adjudication from the UN, inciting other states with whom they have a territorial dispute. Unfortunately, both the Kosovar Albanians and the Serbian government are uncompromising on their positions. Time is unlikely to improve that sentiment. The Serbian government seems to be buttressing its position legally to deal with any decision that may be adverse to their interests in Kosovo. The decision on the final status of Kosovo will certainly anger one side and set precedents in the international community. The international community needs to have the courage to make this decision even if it does run the risk of conflict.
