The recent upsurge of violence in France points to a progressive start of a repeat of the 2005 riots. Over the weekend, the most violent incident seen this far this year occurred in Marseilles when youth torched a bus, severely injured a woman who was caught inside. This time around, TRC noted a change of character in the latest string of rioting that point to fresh developments.
First, the most recent string of attacks point to a higher level of coordination than the attacks seen in last fall?s revolts. This time, youth are not only targeting police patrols to a greater extent, but they are also organizing and planning their ambushes, indicating that some level of congregation and preparation must have taken place. Police reports confirm this alarming new trend. In September, when the first police patrol fell victim to an ambush, they were caught off guard. The youth attacked the officers? vehicle with stones, and when one of the officers left the vehicle, he was surprised by some 20 masked youth who had been hiding in bushes. As the driver rushed to his partner?s help, assailants overwhelmed them and beat the officers, injuring their faces and bodies. Another police report stated that when a patrol car responded to an emergency call, officers were met by a significant number of masked youth who were waiting with baseball bats and iron bars. In comparison, last year?s rioting, although far-reaching, were deemed random, impulsive, and unorganized.
Another noted development is the increase in the use of firearms. While last year?s rioters were armed with stones, sticks, or gasoline bombs, there has been a sudden upsurge in the use of firearms in attacks. This is unquestionably disquieting, as data points to the involvement of more sophisticated criminal elements and/or active incitement from Islamic radicals. The youth who are unleashing their long-brewing anger toward French society by taking to violence also represent the faction of society that would be most receptive to radicalization. Thus, future recruitment, radicalization, and further mobilization of these youngsters are an aspiration for established Islamist terrorist networks to pursue.
The third and equally alarming new trend is the apparent spread from the peripheries of Paris into the inner city area. Whereas last year?s outcry remained concentrated to the housing projects in Paris? outer suburbs, new attacks have taken place on the Nanterre bus line, which runs near Paris? financial district. Rebellions are targeting increasingly closer areas to the affluent downtown. A spillover will have a direct affect on civilians in and around the city to a greater extent that the one seen so far. While the vast parts of Paris had remained calm (shops have stayed open and people have gone to work) as the fighting was going on in the outer fringes of the city, a more organized and equipped rebellion can now affect the whole metropolis, posing a greater peril to the public order.
The government cannot claim that they were caught off guard this time as they were a year ago. Several indicators have, in recent months, pointed to a brewing flare-up, and police and local authorities have both repeatedly warned the federal government of the risk of a new and more extensive outbreak of suburban rioting. However, these new developments have proved unpredictable even by law enforcement forecasts and are now a source of greater concern than before. The government must take action quickly in order to tackle the newest developments and apply anticipatory counter-measures.
