Aggression in the Horn of Africa is escalating at rapid rates. Border conflicts between geo-political power states, Ethiopia , Somalia , and Eritrea are climaxing into a potential regional war. Somalia’s dysfunctional and violently fragmented environment is drawing in controversial intervention from its neighbors, especially long-time rival states: Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia’s support of the interim government juxtaposed with Eritrea’s support for the Islamic Courts Union provides reason to believe that the two rival states may be using Somalia as a front for a proxy war .
Ethiopian Dynamics
Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia’s struggle for power is complicated at best. Starting with its internal conflicts, Ogaden, Ethiopia’s eastern province, is densely populated with Somalis, who are allegedly ICU loyalists. Since the 1977 “short-lived” invasion of Ogaden led by the ethnic-Somali insurgency group Ogaden Liberation Front (Group Profile forthcoming), Somali nationalists still advocate for a “greater Somalia” (source). ICU loyalists in this region and further south have been waiting for another invasion, preferably led by the ICU for two likely reasons:
1.) Somali loyalists in Ethiopia are historically anti-Ethiopian because of its relations with Western governments and its identity as a Christian country, and
2.) An ICU-led invasion would supply Ethiopian rebels with ammunition and logistics to take up their own liberation initiatives against the government.
Eritrean Dynamics
In addition to Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, its long-time border struggle with Eritrea has reached new aggravating heights. Violating the six-year peace agreement that ended the 1998-2000 border war, on October 16, Eritrea moved close to 1,500 troops and 14 tanks into the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ), which is monitored by UN peace keepers (source). Ethiopia’s decision to not respond militarily to this “minor provocation” is likely to be strategically planed. Well aware of Eritrea’s unofficial support of the ICU, Ethiopia does not want to add more fuel to the already blazing fire. Eritrea’s support?supplying the Islamists with arms–of the ICU is most likely out of spite to the Ethiopian government, given the ongoing border conflict. Nonetheless, if the ICU continues to advance westward, taking over the Somali transitional government’s capital, Baidoa, Ethiopia fears that Somali nationalists, especially ICU loyalists, in southeastern Ethiopia will gladly lend their support and encourage an invasion reminiscent of 1977.
This is most likely the reason why Ethiopia has recently boosted its support of the Somali transitional government after the ICU’s retaking of Buurhakaba, just 30 miles from Baidoa, on October 23. Ethiopian senior government official, Bereket Simon, announced that if the ICU invades Baidoa, it would retaliate with force (source). Until now, Ethiopia has repeatedly denied sending troops into Somalia, claiming it sends advisors to train Somali troops instead. However, the significance of this declaration lies in Ethiopia’s recognition of Eritrean motives. Should ICU militants decide to invade Baidoa and thereby mobilize loyalists in the south, Ethiopia would most likely move the majority of its troops from the north to Ogaden, signaling a green light for Eritrea to send even more troops into the TSZ or maybe even further into Ethiopia.
Forecast: Proxy War Likely to Materialize into Full-Scale War
If Ethiopia continues to support Somalia’s interim government actively and Eritrea follows suit with the ICU, the consequence is likely to develop from a proxy war into a full-scale war between all three states. For now, Ethiopia is responding cautiously to Eritrea’s blatant breach of the border peace agreement. However, as events in Somalia unfold, Ethiopian and Eritrean tensions will likely heighten, and if Eritrea moves in any further, Ethiopian forces are likely to retaliate.
