There is currently intense political and economic strife within the Palestinian Territories, and outbreaks of sporadic violence have occurred and are likely to continue. However, it is highly unlikely that existing strife will devolve into a civil war. Such a development is not in the interest of any of the major players in the conflict: Palestinian population, leadership of Hamas and Fatah , Israel , the Arab League, or the United States .
The top leaders from Hamas and Fatah have reiterated that political infighting must not lead to a civil war. And while past political positions and commitments may prevent either from reaching an accommodation in the near term, Israel and the international community have the economic power to alleviate pressure in the Territories and prevent the dire situation from worsening.
Scenarios
Despite recent setbacks, the opportunity remains to form a Fatah-Hamas Unity Government based on the National Reconciliation Document that may lead to a resumption of some international aid . However, disagreements between the two political rivals over ministerial portfolios and Hamas? public insistence it would never recognize Israel have temporarily sunk talks. As recently as October 8th, Prime Minister Haniyeh of Hamas called on President Abbas of Fatah to travel to the Gaza Strip and resume deliberations.
A less likely scenario is that Abbas dismisses the Hamas led government and calls for new elections. Such a scenario requires Abbas to demonstrate an unforeseen level of political will, as his decision would likely be met with increased violence. Hamas is not inclined to allow a reversal of their electoral victory by presidential fiat, nor does it accept Fatah?s assertion that the President has the authority to call new elections. There is also the potential that Palestinians would simply vote Hamas back into power, bringing circumstances full circle.
A third and least likely scenario is that Hamas, Fatah, and other official Palestinian representatives determine they cannot effectively govern the Territories because of external pressure and relinquish power. Israel continues to control and often close the borders ? choking the Palestinian economy, collects and holds Palestinian tax revenue in the West Bank, maintains air and sea sovereignty over the Territories, and launches repeated military incursions into Gaza. The rationale for this scenario is that Israel, not the Palestinian Authority, is the decisive power in the Territories and should therefore be held responsible for its governance. Under International Law, Israel ? as the ?occupying power? – would be required to provide health, education and other services. Moreover, the economic and security burden of reoccupying the Territories could bring new pressure on Israel to sign a comprehensive peace agreement with the Palestinians.
Status Quo
While the major players in the conflict seek to avoid the outbreak of civil war, each is also averse to compromising on their well-entrenched positions. Hamas will not recognize Israel, Israel will not negotiate with a Hamas government, the US is intent on forcing Hamas to submit to the Quartet?s three prerequisites for international aid , and Fatah will not accept its loss of political power. Thus, the most likely scenario in the near future for the Palestinian Authority is the status quo, a failing situation that hovers near complete catastrophe for the people it governs.
