The four-month long Oaxaca City protests appear unlikely to be resolved in the near-term as tentative agreements reached last week between the administration of President Fox and strike leaders has largely collapsed, ushering in a new round of civil disorder and bloodshed. Oaxaca City protests have paralyzed the city?s economy depriving it of much needed tourist revenue, the city?s primary income source. The protests were initially designed to champion increased wages among Oaxaca City?s teacher?s unions but eventually evolved into a larger city campaign calling for the resignation of Oaxaca state Governor Ulises Ruiz. This metamorphosis occurred in June after local police forces were dispatched to forcefully remove protestors from the city center, resulting in the loss of life.
How Did the Situation Deteriorate to Present Conditions?
The protesters, a mix of trade unionists, leftists, anarchists and students, accuse Ruiz of rigging his 2004 election and violently repressing dissent. In early October protestors marched to Mexico City to take their claims directly to President Vincente Fox. The Fox administration had reached a tentative agreement with protestors last week, with protestors appearing prepared to terminate their civil disobedience campaign pending a full investigation into the activities of Governor Ruiz. After months of work stoppages and local work shutdowns, Oaxaca City government employees and shop owners returned to work in large numbers. However, firebrand elements within the protest movement, wishing to see the continuation of anarchy, hijacked buses in Oaxaca City and verbally and physically threatened any local resident returning to work. These strike enforcers, known as the ?mobile brigade?, largely succeeded in frightening local residents back to protests.
Moving Towards the Cessation of Civil Disorder
Mexican senators arrived in Oaxaca City on Thursday, October 12, to assess the current situation and determine if Ruiz had lost control of the city. If Mexican senators judge that all three branches of the Oaxaca state government ? the executive, legislative, and judicial ? have ceased to function, the Senate committee can call for the removal of the governor. However, TRC believes such an outcome is unlikely due to current political circumstances facing President Fox and his elected successor, Felipe Calderon.
Governor Ulises Ruiz is a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Felipe Calderon and his National Action Party (PAN) will need the support of the PRI in the Mexican legislature to form a coalition governing party, to mitigate the newly acquired power of the Party of Democratic Revolution (PRD). Should Calderon seek the removal of Ulises a coalition of PAN and PRI legislatures is unlikely allowing the PRD to hamstring the agenda of Calderon.
President Fox has pledged to resolve the civic disorder before he leaves office on December 1. Fox recognizes that the existence of continued strikes in Oaxaca upon Calderon?s entry into office will hinder his first months in office, perhaps jeopardizing Calderon?s agenda in the short-term. At this time the Mexican military appears unlikely to restore order to city in the near-term as President Fox does not wish to inflame existing tensions and further hamper Calderon?s ability to govern.
Additionally, the Oaxaca City tourist industry thrives during the months of October to May. The city has already lost enormous sums of income due to the four month long strike and is in desperate need of attracting US travelers.
However, until a comprehensive solution is reached and order restored to Oaxaca City, foreign nationals should avoid travel to the area. Violence is sporadic but indiscriminate and poses a threat to all individuals residing within the city.
