To say relations between Russia and Georgia have soured recently is an understatement. Bilateral diplomatic relations are in question, as Russia has recalled its ambassador and evacuated some of its embassy personnel. This most recent flare-up is a harbinger of an increasingly bleak relationship between the two countries. Both sides are digging in their heels, but Russia is truly playing hard ball, simply because: 1) they have the ability to do so, and 2) they wish to send a very strong message both to Georgia and the world that Russia retains much of the might and power of its Soviet predecessor and is not afraid to use it. Georgia is at a tremendous disadvantage in this situation. Georgia is the smaller and weaker country. Despite its independence from the Soviet Union, Georgia is still very dependent on Mother Russia, a vulnerability Russia seeks to exploit.
At the heart of this acrimonious relationship is the fact that Georgia, especially recently, has aspired to move away from Russian hegemony, toward a more Western, pro-US and pro-NATO sphere of influence. Conversely, Russia, faced with a refraction of both land mass and influence in the world since 1991 is seeking to keep its former republics as close and dependent as possible . Russia does not want any Western encroachment on its borders that would reduce its sphere of influence further. Therefore, it is imperative to keep as many former republics or satellite states dependent or subservient to Russia, as a buffer between East and West.
The current dispute erupted over the arrest of four Russian officers who the Georgian government accused of spying for Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Georgia?s actions an act of provocation and blackmail. A motion was put before the Duma reiterating this sentiment, condemning Georgia?s actions, and accusing the Georgian government of violating human rights. This could have simply been a case of diplomatic grandstanding in which Putin overreacted. However, although Georgia released the officers to the custody of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Russia still imposed sanctions and other harsh measures against Georgia. It is unclear whether the Putin administration was planning to do so as a retaliatory measure if the Georgians did not release the men or if this also punishment. Considering the harsh measures that the Russian government has imposed and did not lift when their officials were released, Russia?s reaction appears to be a deterrent against any future ?transgressions? by Georgia. For their part, Georgia claims they did not cave into Russian pressure.
Russian Reprisals against Georgia
Russia has imposed economic sanctions on Georgia by suspending transportation and postal links, meaning many Georgian goods are languishing at the border. Many Georgians also work in Russia and send money home, so the Russian parliament is considering blocking transfers of money to Georgia. This would definitely impact Georgia?s economy. Georgian businesses in Russia are also being targeted and raided. Russia has also stopped issuing visas to Georgian nationals and is actively deporting any Georgians found to be ?illegal.? There is no indication of when these sanctions will end, and they could become even worse. Earlier in the year, Russia and the Ukraine quarreled over the cost of natural gas, and Russia temporarily turned off the gas supply to the Ukraine. Around the same time, tensions flared up between Russia and the Ukraine over the ?sabotage? of gas pipelines to Georgia during one of the coldest winters on record. Russia has used energy dependency as leverage against these countries before . Should Russia choose to do so again, Georgia may face even more serious problems.
Georgia is desperately trying to assert itself against Moscow, but Russia, afraid of encirclement?be it ideological, cultural, military, or economic–is quickly putting down any dissent. Unfortunately, recent events have demonstrated that Georgia alone is simply not strong enough to take on the wrath of Russia.
