The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC; has been plagued with ethnic cleansing (Hutu vs Tutsi), human rights abuses, tribal conflict, political upheaval, military mutinies and coups, and transnational interference from neighbors since the 1960s and particularly throughout the 1990s. The country is considered to have had “the widest interstate war in modern African history” (source). Rivals have signed peace agreements, yet warring continues to ebb and flow.
The July 30 election was historic for two reasons:
? it was the first?some would call it “democratic”–free election in over 40 years, and
? it took place, despite violent campaigning in the lead-up to the vote, without violence.
As of August 14, the election commission in the DROC had tallied nearly 50 percent of the votes from 78 of the nation’s 169 constituencies. The final results will be announced no later than August 31 and possibly by August 20. If one candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the official inauguration will take place on September 10; if no one receives a majority, the inauguration, likely slated for December 10, will follow a run-off in late October. But, the DROC is in for much of the same, given incumbent Joseph Kabila’s presumed win. Violence, likely regardless of who wins, may be anticipated after either the Kabila outright win or the Fall runoff.
The Electoral Process
The world’s largest UN peacekeeping operation, along with a 1,000-man strong EU rapid-reaction force, guarded the voting. The undertaking cost upward of US$450 million and was intended to end prospects of war. Election highlights include high turnout and relative order. However, the voting base is waiting with baited breath for the final results.
The election itself is marred in accusations of fraud. Five election officials were arrested for falsifying documents, and Kabila’s opposition complained of “massive irregularities,” which include bribery and document tampering (source). However, despite the allegations, the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) said there was no threat to the election. Even still, opposition members and candidates are calling on the international community to act on the fraud charges.
While peace has been in place since 2003, it has been tenuous and strained at best. The war, which began in 1998, not only spilled over to seven countries and resulted in over four million deaths but also shook regional stability. Insurgents from Uganda and Rwanda found safehaven in the west and south, neither of which are controlled by the central government, and sparked their 1998 invasions and subsequent war. The DROC is divided between the Swahili-speaking east and Lingala-speaking west. Violence, particularly in the east, raises the specter of broad-based instability. Should one of the candidates receive more than 50 percent of the vote, a run-off, slated for October 29, would be unnecessary and likely spark sectarian fighting, likely touched off in the DROC capital, Kinshasa. Religious leaders have appealed to the maturity of their followers.
The Candidates
Notably, there are 33 presidential candidates to choose in the DROC’s presidential election. Below are the top two contenders.
Maj. Gen. Joseph Kabange Kabila
Kabila holds between 53-55 percent of the counted and certified vote and is the favorite to win outright. At 35, Kabila is Africa’s youngest national leader. He is widely credited with bringing about an end to the war, peace to the region, and a democratic election process. That he has held on to power through a turbulent five years, since Laurent Kabila’s assassination in 2001 and subsequent regional war, is remarkable. He was lauded by the international community for brokering a Congolese peace deal in 2003 and continues to be backed by the international community, a move that has actually disenfranchised much of the local, voting population. He is particularly strong in his native Swahili-speaking east.
Kinshasa, the widely anti-Kabila capital city in the west of the country, has not yet had its three million votes tabulated, so he could see a drop in support. Should he loose, his supporters are likely to become violent. Should he win, Kinshasa, followed by at least the west, is likely to witness a violent backlash against him. His win is not a surety, and his omnipresent TV and radio advertisements hint concern of those who are nipping at his heals.
Jean-Pierre Bemba
Jean-Pierre Bemba (44) is a former rebel leader of the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) (aligned with Uganda ) and a current vice president in the transitional government. The Central African Republic (CAR; Country Profile) issued an arrest warrant for Bemba for committing war crimes during his rebel days. Bemba has secured between 16-19 percent of the vote, putting him in second place behind Kabila. However, as one anonymous diplomat said, “it would appear difficult for Bemba to get in front of Kabila” (source).
Bemba has done very well in Kinshasa and his native Lingala-speaking west. He likely has support in the northern third of the nation, his MLC’s turf. He has run on a “100 percent Congolese” campaign, calling Kabila’s heritage, having been raised in Tanzania , into question. Bemba is viewed as a champion for the DROC and not beholden to the international community: “I am a patriot?Vote for me and I will rebuild our country” (source). He is also an eloquent, outgoing speaker, compared to Kabila, and he comes from a prominent business family. Having studied business himself, he vows to encourage private investment in the DROC and to restore the national economy by rebuilding critical infrastructure. Bemba is expected to win three of the ten provinces.
Bemba has a loyal militia following and has vowed to “set the country ablaze” (source) if poll rigging is discovered. Analysts fear that if he looses his political seat, he may rally his followers to violence, although he promises “lasting peace to the restive east,” should he win (source). His win would align the DROC more squarely with Uganda, his one-time financier.
