The launching of the BTC oil pipeline marks a historical milestone for Azerbaijan , Georgia , and Turkey as their economy and geopolitical significance will expand appreciably. It runs from Baku through Tbilisi for Turkey?s increasingly important oil market in Ceyhan and has taken six years to build.
The 1,000-mile long pipeline is planned to be inaugurated officially on July 13 and will bring presidents and ministers from 16 countries together to celebrate. The Caucasus nations are not the only ones rejoicing the new oil channel; the United States and the EU have long been waiting for the crude, known to be of premium quality, to reach their markets and support their endeavour to reduce their dependencies on Middle Eastern distributors. President George Bush has repeatedly stated that the US? largest dilemma is the ?addiction? to Middle Eastern oil and that the demand is hampering the US? efforts to ensure national security and sustain economic prosperity as many of the supplier countries attempt to use their domination of the world?s most abundant reserves as a political weapon and negotiation manoeuvre. Caspian Sea oil is expected to deliver a million barrels a day at its peak, paving the way for a new East-West pact.
Yet, there is an ominous cloud hanging over the promising exchange. Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan all face considerable security issues, mainly caused by indigenous separatist groups threatening to destabilize the region. Anti-terrorist squads have been deployed to the areas in an attempt to secure the new oil channel. With the prospect of a possible terrorist attack, they are watching for members of the Kurdish separatist groups PKK and TAK and radical groups in Georgia where the main threat is believed to be coming from. Kurdish militants have stepped up their attacks in Turkey after a crackdown on rebel members sparked a new wave of violence . In Georgia, the Abkhaz conflict continues to be an ongoing source for volatility, and the government?s attempt to compromise by offering substantial self-rule to the region has done nothing but increase Abkhaz avowal of absolute secession. Additionally, Azerbaijan ought not be forgotten for coping with a challenging situation in Karabakh region that many believe could lead to a new war. Yet another peril looms toward the Chechen border as an overspill of their domestic conflict remains a very real potential, which TRC warned of in late May 2006 .
The innovative pipeline?s realization, thus, heavily depends on the security measures that will be taken to ensure a successful kick-off. The developments in the upcoming half-year should, therefore, be closely monitored, as many of the regional players could easily steal the international spotlight from the new partners in launching an attack against the infrastructure.