The explosive ferocity of this weekend?s riots in Afghanistan , coupled with the existing anger that followed a recent US air strike against anti-government militants that reportedly killed at least 16 civilians, has laid bare a concerning degree of underlying popular resentment and animosity toward the US and the foreign presence in the country.
Amir Shah, of the Associated Press, described the riot scene: ?Chanting ?Death to America,? rioters stoned the U.S. convoy involved in the accident then headed to the center of town, ransacking offices of international aid groups and searching for foreigners in a display of rising resentment over civilian deaths in the war against insurgents.? The general targets of the rioting?symbols of the US and foreign presence and of foreigners?underscores a certain nationalist liberation streak within the populace, particularly exacerbated by the recent deaths of civilians amid coalition military action. The Associated Press reported that during major combat operations between October 2001 and February 2002, 500 to 600 civilians were killed, and since that time, 180 civilians have died as a result of coalition military action.
Mukhtar Ziayee, a local property dealer quoted by the New York Times, said that ?Most of the demonstrators are people who have lost their jobs and the government cannot provide the people with the basic necessities.? Local government corruption has caused some Afghans to lose faith in the government, while an impoverished populace and slow pace of reconstruction have also made a significant swath of Afghan society susceptible to, and at least tacitly supportive of, the Taliban and its operations as an alternative to the Kabul government.
This general impoverishment, sentiments of frustration and disillusionment with the government, and resentment of the foreign military presence provides fertile soil for the cultivation and expansion of the Taliban, al-Qaeda , and/or criminal insurgencies, particularly in rallying recruits and supporters through the promise of empowerment, security, and a means to a better life through nationalist liberation, jihadist, and/or criminal militancy. Indeed, as Jason Straziuso reports, tribal leaders in Gardez have shown the Afghan rights commission fliers issued by the Taliban that highlighted Afghan civilian deaths as a reason to join the Taliban insurgency.
As the Taliban reportedly continues to gain control over villages along the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands and enters into collusion with local government officials outside of the Kabul government?s reach and writ, the eruption of anti-foreign rioting would seem to highlight the increased potential that the Taliban may seek to exploit this anti foreign, anti-government sentiment to consolidate societal support and control.
Overall, these dynamics, within the context of an invigorated Taliban-led insurgency discussed in recent weeks in these pages , do not bode well for counterinsurgency efforts. Recent trends have underscored the criticality of reconstruction, anti-corruption, and security efforts directed at winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan populace lest they are won over by the Taliban. Should the Taliban gain significant societal support, particularly as a nationalist liberation force, the insurgency will become increasingly entrenched. Thus, the future of the Taliban insurgency hangs largely with the disposition of the Afghan populace between support for the Kabul government and the Taliban.
