It is little wonder that both the Ukraine and Georgia have announced intentions of leaving former Motherland Russia and her Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These two follow a short string of satellites: Lithuania and Latvia . The Soviet empire continues to crumble, losing more power and influence with each exodus. It is, however, noteworthy, that the announcement came on the heels of a May 4 meeting between US Vice President Dick Cheney and leaders from Ukraine, Georgia, among others about their respective relationships with Russia and the West.
According to Spiegel, Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko posed the following question: “What do we need this structure for?,” especially as the CIS meetings seem to have devolved away from problem-solving toward tongue-wagging. Both countries want to be reminded of the benefits of CIS membership.
In turn, Mother Russia is none too proud of the two fledgling countries and has threatened to cancel “benefits which these states enjoy within the CIS,” according to RIA Novosti. If the two countries are serious about ceding, they would be well advised to do so at the onset of summer, leaving time to create new energy alliances, as Russia is likely to cut current gas/oil supplies, making for a bitter winter. An example of this natural gas withdrawal, snidely termed “the Cold War,” was seen against the Ukraine over the 2005-2006 winter when the Russian Defense Minister, in Hitlerian style, threatened Kiev with “fatal consequences” (source) for questioning Russia’s exorbitant gas rate hikes and shut off the natural gas supply to the Ukraine. Notably, the Ukraine has suffered far more reprisals than its sibling Georgia. However, both nations severed political ties to Russia in their respective democratic revolutions, and in exchange, Russia imposed harsh economic measures. For example, Georgia was on the receiving end of a Moscow-induced boycott of Georgian mineral water and wine.
Russia, under Vladimir Putin, ascended to the G-8 throne for 2006. His key agenda issue is “the safety of the world’s energy supply” (source). Spiegel also noted that the New York Times liked Putin’s reign over the G-8 to “Sudan?[assuming] the chairmanship of the UN Commission for Human Rights’ (source). The 2005-2006 winter illustrated Putin’s willingness to use resources as a political weapon against his own. This continues a trend seen by Belarus in 2004 and Lithuania during the post-Soviet era. Russia has gone a long way to secure oil from Turkmenistan , Uzbekistan , and Kazakhstan . Remaining loyalist countries would be well advised to learn a lesson from history and arrange for contingency planning should Moscow turn her angry eye to them.
This, then, opens up the Ukraine and Georgia to external influences that should be carefully calibrated and even more carefully approached. Both nations will now be looking for support and commodities, including gas/oil, from external sources. They may wish to follow Lithuania and Latvia and should receive support and guidance in applying for EU membership, unlike Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel’s May 16 hasty announcement of her opposition to EU expansion. The EU and the US would be well advised to support both countries’ economies by encouraging global trade, given that both currently lean on Russia for commerce. The US would be well advised to infuse financial support to bolster the infrastructure?pipelines, roadways, schools, hospitals, shelter, etc.?and prepare the countries for their winters, all of this without interfering with the nations’ politics or economy. Providing and building their creature comforts will go a longer way in fostering long-term relations, which can?and will?be offset by capitalism, but only after the citizenry can provide for their most basic needs first.
