Last week’s botched kidnapping attempt and murder of Liliana Gaviria, sister of former Colombian President Cesar Gaviria, has highlighted ongoing security concerns in Colombia and the ever-present threat of politically targeted kidnappings and assassinations . The death of Gaviria, although dramatic and unfortunate, is far more significant due to the successive setbacks and political blunders in the past month that have plagued the once-untarnished Alvaro Uribe presidency. Although these setbacks appear unlikely to alter the course of the May 28 presidential elections, they have undoubtedly given Uribe’s opponents fresh ammunition and have temporarily seized the undivided attention of his administration and the international community.
Recent allegations first reported on by Colombia’s top news magazine Semana has caused a political stir throughout Bogota with Uribe’s political opponents seizing upon the opportunity to upbraid the mighty and largely beloved President. Semana has made several bold accusations throughout the latter half of April and although such allegations have surfaced sporadically since Uribe’s election in 2002, recent reports have drawn the ire of the President. Reports have focused predominately on fraud allegations in Uribe’s 2002 election victory; a conspiracy to assassinate leftist and union activists; and the leaking of sensitive information to drug traffickers and right-wing paramilitary groups. In addition, Semana has also reported that officials within the state security agency DAS allegedly plotted to destabilize the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
The above allegations are not the first to link Uribe directly with prominent drug traffickers in Colombia. As so widely reported in 2004, unclassified US military intelligence reports dating back to 1991 made several references to then-Senator Uribe and his personal links to drug kingpin Pablo Escobar . As reported by Newsweek’s Joseph Contreras, the documents alleged that Uribe had assisted the drug lord in his congressional campaign victory and had opposed the extradition of Colombian drug lords to the US. However, these allegations subsided due to Uribe’s aggressive pursuit of FARC guerrillas and his evident commitment to eliminating FARC drug trafficking and financing.
Uribe has wasted little time in aggressively countering allegations that have surfaced in past weeks. As the polling stands now, Uribe continues to enjoy a comfortable lead and appears to be muting political opposition effectively. In this way, the current race is little different from that which occurred in 2002, when the presidential race turned into a dirty personal campaign. As stated by Semana columnist Henrando Gomez Buendia in 2002, “the problem is that based on the polls, everyone is assuming that Uribe will win the elections handily. Thus the campaign has boiled down to Uribe vs. Uribe, as the candidate fights to fend off his opponent’s allegations about incidents in his past.”
The Uribe presidency has been dominated by guerrilla counterinsurgencies, disarmament (Intel Report forthcoming), and counternarcotics campaigns. Successes have been far greater than defeats, a rarity among Colombian presidential administrations. Since 2002, Colombia has experienced a 37 percent drop in homicides and a 73 percent drop in kidnappings. Less known to international observers, however, is the dramatic increase in foreign investment in the country; the impending approval of a free trade accord with the United States; and rejuvenation of a once stagnant economy . However, as elections draw nearer, Colombian politics is again dominated by those topics that have plagued this country for the last 40+ years: drugs and war. They are merely amplified by brutal acts, such as the death of Liliana Giviria, and the maelstrom of allegations circulating throughout the Colombian press.
Uribe has proven effective in his administration’s aggressive policies toward leftist guerrilla groups. However, Giviria’s death is a grim reminder that although the Colombian military has made extensive gains against FARC guerrillas, the threat continues to exist and could escalate in coming weeks. FARC attacks have historically increased in ferocity in the weeks leading up to presidential and legislative elections . Uribe’s instinct will be to counter attacks aggressively. Such instincts have served Uribe well in the past four years. However, these instincts have also caused him considerable trouble with the Colombian media, as he lashes out at peaceful criticism in the same manner in which he targets hostile action.
The manner in which Uribe weathers the impending storm is far more concerning to international observers than the repeated and inconclusive allegations that frequently target Uribe. He has demonstrated malevolence toward opponents and media outlets that voice dissent to his administration’s policies, and he frequently and publicly rebukes these individuals. The US-based Human Rights Watch has expressed its repeated concerns that his stern lectures to vociferous opponents are an attempt to muzzle the press and, thereby, control the story. To avoid the ever-lurking political landmine, Uribe would be wise to sit the last month out as his re-election chances appear all but assured.
