On April 13, Ayman al-Zawahiri released his twentieth recorded message since May 2003. In his past several messages, al-Zawahiri appearances have endeavored to do more than provoke or encourage terrorists and insurgents, but have sought to provide al-Qaeda’s collective opinion on a number of Islamic world political developments. Al-Zawahiri has through this medium attempted to cast himself as an Islamic world leader, appearing every couple of months to tell the faithful how they should view current politics and in some cases, what they should do about them. It is almost as if al-Zawahiri believes that he has won some sort of office and that the mandate that brought him there was the 9/11 attacks .
While there is evidence that al-Zawahiri?s political messages resonate with a considerable number of Muslims, a fatigue may be observed developing with the al-Qaeda leader and his attempts to influence Muslim opinion. This last tape got only cursory coverage in major Arab press outlets. At least two major Arab news papers ran stories on Iraq?s beauty queen deciding to relocate to Jordan on their front pages, notably omitting Zawahiri?s newest tape. The tape also garnered little reaction on Jihadist websites, even those characterized as being dedicated to al-Qaeda. It seems possible that the al-Qaeda leader?s ability to command a large Muslim audience for his political rants may be declining.
Out of the complete contents of the 30-minute speech, only the part in which al-Zawahiri mentions Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was widely focused on in most news reports, probably because it bears upon recent news around the Jordanian terrorist leader?s potentially declining status. Zawahiri?s characterization of Bush as ?the Caesar of Washington? was reported on because it is colorful, and his call upon disputing parties among Iraq?s tribes, scholars, and insurgent factions was timely, but other parts of his speech, in which he repeats oft-heard themes of American cowardice and al-Qaeda?s rejection of Muslim world political processes were repetitive and received little attention. Again and again, reports and analyses on al-Qaeda say that the organization has become increasingly decentralized. Increasing decentralization means a gradual diminishing of importance for core leaders like Zawahiri.
Zawahiri?s comments to Zarqawi and other players in the Iraqi insurgency were potentially the most relevant part of the speech. They indicated that Zawahiri considered Zarqawi to be nominally in the al-Qaeda circle, but his ?praise? of the Jordanian terrorist was actually more critical than encouraging (Terror Web Watch). It will be important to note if there is any reaction observed from the tribes, factions, and scholars addressed by Zawahiri over the next couple weeks. It would be a show of respect to release a communiqu? or statement acknowledging Zawahiri?s advice, but neglecting to do so could represent the opposite.
Even after lecturing him to unite with the tribes and other factions, Zawahiri may have provided a polite nod to Zarqawi?s ambitions outside Iraq, specifically in the Levant. A notable line in the speech is that Zawahiri characterizes the Iraqi Mujahideen as ?fighting at the gates of Palestine,? echoing Zarqawi rhetoric that insurgent success in Iraq could turn the country into a springboard from which to launch attacks on Israel .