Perhaps traditional terrorist groups have gone out of vogue, opening the door for the more amoebic, entrepreneurial network of nefarious and anonymous miscreants. Gone are the days of a formal organizational structure, with leaders and followers, and of a definitive, ruling dogma or covenant. This was most clearly underscored early this week, with ETA’s announcement of a permanent ceasefire . In what may be their way of disassociating to the omnipresent al-Qaeda network , ETA may have taken its last step in distancing itself from the Madrid train bombing attack . According to Christopher Langton, an analyst at London’s International Institute of Strategic Studies, “The old terrorist groups?would not want to be linked?with this new type of terror. They wouldn’t want to be seen to be competing for attention with it.” Conversely, the al-Qaeda threat to Europe continues relatively unabated, with the network?with no true leader?having no interest in negotiations, which placated groups of old. While in days of yore eliminating the leader would have eliminated the group, contemporary al-Qaeda is akin to Hydra: cut off one head and a dozen sprout in its place. While a stretch to see the silver lining in gruesome acts of terror, European nations and allies have given due attention to information sharing, toughen antiterrorism laws, and training of first responders to human-made disasters. Whereas in days gone by, the UK may have countered the IRA alone and Spain , with the support of France , ETA and Germany Baader Meinhof and Greece November 17 , the contemporary threat of the al-Qaeda network has brought together European nations to face a common enemy with a united front. One example of this is the recent EU introduction of a standard drivers’ license to avoid document fraud by subversive elements. Further, having witnessed mass casualty incidents targeting civilians repeatedly, any sympathy to the struggle of the perpetrators has been wholly lost. Both the IRA and ETA were renowned for warning calls prior to detonations to avoid casualties, and this garnered compassion from a wide rage of Europeans. This was best witnessed by the IRA’s disarmament within two months of 9/11 , and its willingness to renounce violence in the aftermath of the London Tube bombings . The lessons of the IRA and its political wing, Sinn Fein, were certainly not lost on remaining groups throughout Europe. Said one anonymous IRA member: “Al-Qaeda did change things for us.” And, further, the devastation of old-school terrorist groups was somehow eclipsed by the carnage of al-Qaeda. For example, ETA tallies nearly 800 casualties in nearly four decades of targeted violence (Terrorism); the al-Qaeda network killed half as many in just four attacks: Turkey (Terrorist Incident and Terrorist Incident); Madrid; and London.
Decommissioning and disarmament took the Cold War-era groups of Europe nearly two decades to achieve. And, this was the will of the groups’ leaderships. Al-Qaeda has been in existence as an entity since the late 1980s. With a haphazard leadership structure outside the network’s core, which has no intention of halting its horrifying actions against the kufir, the likelihood that the al-Qaeda network will perpetuate into the long-term is likely. Looking forward, according to Dr. Marc Sageman, the next wave of terrorism, once the al-Qaeda wave subsides, is that of eco-terrorism, which is much aligned with the al-Qaeda form and organizational structure.