The renewal of sectarian attacks in Iraq has pushed the country closer to a precipitous descent into civil war (see this WAR Report), with the rebel Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr establishing himself and his Mahdi Army as arguably the most influential actors within Iraq amid the current sectarianism.
As of March 14, the Associated Press reported that ?police in the past 24 hours have found the bodies of at least 85 people killed by execution-style shootings?a gruesome wave of apparent sectarian reprisal slayings.? These discoveries follow a weekend of bloody attacks , targeting Sadr City that killed 58 people and wounded 300, according to the Health Ministry, as quoted by the New York Times. The attacks would seem aimed at either revenge against the Shia community for its perceived sectarian violence or to stoke sectarian conflict by provoking them to lash out against the Sunni community.
In response to the Sadr City attacks, Sadr, with the power to rally his militia and many Shia to take revenge against rival Sunnis, called for calm and national unity and blamed the attacks on al-Qaeda . ?We are not weak,? Sadr proclaimed as quoted by the Associated Press, ?but we don?t want to be dragged to a civil war.? Sadr went on to note the faltering attempts by Iraqi politicians to form a national government: ?The politicians are busy, with one saying I want to be the prime minister and the other saying I want to be the president. They have forgotten the people and are looking out only for their narrow interests.? In a follow-up to last week?s WAR Report discussion of the rise of Sadr in the landscape of martial power and politics in Iraq, Sadr?s statement seems to be a shrewd political maneuver. He seems to be attempting to portray himself as a national leader and seize greater power and stature by striking a unifying, populist, and nationalist tone?backed by significant martial militia power?in juxtaposition to a fractured and feuding Iraqi government and weak national security forces. Granted, his words may be undercut by the widely held perception, particularly among Sunnis, that it was his Mahdi Army that arguably proved to be the most active actor within the milieu of sectarian violence and continues to present a formidable and potentially destabilizing militant actor within Iraq. However, Sadr?s remarkable call for unity and calm and refusal to blame Sunnis for the attacks likely did much to staunch, however fleetingly, a headlong rush into civil war. His assignment of blame for the attacks to al-Qaeda may serve to refocus some sectarian militant energies in a unifying, nationalist common cause against a largely foreign enemy.
While these developments and a recommitment among Iraqi politicians to resolve the issues preventing the formation of a national government may be encouraging, the sectarian violence against the backdrop and political vacuum of the stumbling, sectarian-riddled formation of the Iraqi government and the still weak Iraqi security forces relative to sectarian militias continues to highlight the key drivers pushing Iraq to the precipice of civil war.
