Does anyone make accurate geopolitical predictions?
“We discovered three key factors that predicted geopolitical forecasting accuracy.
First, psychological factors, including inductive reasoning, pattern detection, open-mindedness and the tendency to look for information that goes against one’s favored views, especially when combined with political knowledge, helped forecasters make accurate predictions.
Second, forecasters benefited from conditions tested in controlled experiments to determine the best environments for making accurate forecasts, including training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales.
Third, effort mattered. Forecasters who made predictions on more questions, updated their predictions more often and spent more time deliberating about their predictions had a decisive edge.”