Will AI automate human jobs, and — if so — which jobs and when? That’s the trio of questions a new research study from MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), out this morning, tries to answer. There’s been many attempts to extrapolate out and project how the AI technologies of today, like large language models, might impact people’s’ livelihoods — and whole economies — in the future. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could automate 25% of the entire labor market in the next few years. According to McKinsey, nearly half of all work will be AI-driven by 2055. A survey from the University of Pennsylvania, NYU and Princeton finds that ChatGPT alone could impact around 80% of jobs. And a report from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggests that AI is already replacing thousands of workers. But in their study, the MIT researchers sought to move beyond what they characterize as “task-based” comparisons and assess how feasible it is that AI will perform certain roles — and how likely businesses are to actually replace workers with AI tech. Contrary to what one (including this reporter) might expect, the MIT researchers found that the majority of jobs previously identified as being at risk of AI displacement aren’t, in fact, “economically beneficial” to automate — at least at present. The key takeaway, says Neil Thompson, a research scientist at MIT CSAIL and a co-author on the study, is that the coming AI disruption might happen slower — and less dramatically — than some commentators are suggesting.
Full research : New MIT CSAIL study suggests that AI won’t steal as many jobs expected.
