Iran wants to flex its muscles without directly taking on the U.S. or Israel, but that cautious strategy is subject to miscalculation on all sides. The assessment of most of the key players is that Iran has pushed its proxies to make trouble for the American military and to pressure Israel and the West in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the shipping lanes of the Red Sea while going to some lengths to avoid provoking a larger eruption. While Tehran has ramped up its production of uranium drastically in recent weeks, renewing fears that it may be speeding again toward the capability of fabricating several nuclear weapons, it has carefully kept just below the threshold for bomb-grade fuel. That is considered the red line that could trigger military action against its underground nuclear complexes. However happy Iranian leaders may be to stir the pot in the Middle East, all-out war is not in the interests of a country whose supreme leader is in poor health and whose streets have been filled with protesters in recent years. The United States, too, has tried to keep the fighting contained.
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/world/middleeast/us-iran-mideast-war.html