Five years ago, President Trump signed an executive order for a unilateral withdrawal from a nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the United States had signed in 2015 with Iran and other world powers. Trump had argued that the deal was not doing enough to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Despite years of efforts, the JCPOA has not been restored, which has contributed to rising tensions across the region. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chose a path of “resistance” in the face of Trump. The Trump administration had imposed some of the harshest-ever sanctions on Iran, which has since significantly affected the Iranian economy. Iranian leaders have not surrendered their doctrine of defying the U.S.
As Tehran has ramped up the pressure, and the U.S. saw its role in the region diminish, Arab leaders recognized a need for change. The non-response from the U.S. after the 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities was a turning point for Arab nations. Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed in March to restore diplomatic relations in a deal mediated by China, and embassies are expected to reopen this week. The JCPOA’s fate promises to produce more confrontation between Tehran and the West in the coming months.