Treaty’s end would give U.S., Russia impetus to make more nukes: study
On Monday, nonprofit research organization CNA will release a comprehensive study on what will happen if the US and Russia do not renew the New START strategic nuclear disarmament treaty that is set to expire in 2021, or if they abandon the treaty before it expires. Experts warn that the future of New Start seems bleak, especially since the US and Russia have already pulled out of the intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty.
The study claims that without New START, “[n]either country would have the same degree of confidence in its ability to assess the other’s precise warhead levels,” and worst-case planning would become more likely. In addition, the researchers believe that the decline of the treaty would not only lead the US and Russia to expand their nuclear forces, but could also prompt China to overestimate the arsenals of the former New START signatories and consequently start producing more nukes as well.