Highlights:
– Moammar Qaddafi’s son, Seif al-Islam, announced he will no longer be involved in politics
– Seif al-Islam played key role in Libya’s reopening to the West
– With Sief abandoning the political arena, speculation arises as to possible successors to aging Qaddafi
Speaking in front of thousands of young adults at a night rally on August 20, 2008, Seif al-Islam Qaddafi, son of Libyan leader Colonel Mouammar Qaddafi, announced he has “decided no longer to intervene in state affairs.” The announcement came as a surprise to many, as the highly influential 36-year-old reformist has been sized up to be his father’s most likely successor. Seif has been a leading force behind the scenes in Libya’s reopening to the West, including the August 14, 2008 United States -Libya diplomatic restoration accord.
After the completion of several successful economic and social reform programs, which were spearheaded by Seif, he has decided to disengage from the political scene. With Colonel Qaddafi pushing 67 years-old, the leadership succession question will become a growing concern, especially by Western audiences, as Seif al-Islam’s reformist talents are highly favored in order to further advance Libya in the international arena.
Successful Patchwork with the US
The news of Seif’s departure from politics has upset several Western officials, who have been encouraged by Seif’s leadership and impact. Like his father, Seif holds no formal public office, however, he has engaged in a number of economic reforms that have helped restructure Libya’s international investments, to include opening natural gas investments to the European and African markets.
• Most recently, however, Seif played a major role in the August 14, 2008 accord with the US. The diplomatic accord committed the US and Libya to settle lawsuits brought forward by US citizens from the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland, which the US blames on Libya .
Since 1988 bombing, Libya had been seen as the “mad dog” of the Middle East. As such, Libya had previously been considered by President Bush to be listed as part of the so called “axis of evil.” However, the country began to break free of its outcast status in 2003, when Qaddafi announced he had destroyed all stores of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and opened the nation to nuclear inspection. Moreover, Western officials and diplomats credit Seif’s influence upon his father and his behind-the-scenes mediation for many of Libya’s concessions.
Seif Leaves the Scene
With all of Seif’s successes in politics, he has decided he no longer had “big battles” to fight. At the rally on August 20th, Seif said, “I have achieved my program; I have no more big battles to fight and my position is becoming embarrassing.” Seif explains that he has intervened in all fields, “foreign affairs and in domestic Libyan matters like development, housing, urban planning.” However, he believes the current situation has changed, and he is no longer needed.
Western audiences, nonetheless, are not as worry-free as Seif may appear to be about the political future of Libya. Libya’s reopening to the international community has not been accomplished by substantial changes in its system; political power remains almost solely in the hands of Moammar Qaddafi and those in his favor.
Therefore, a “Seif-like” political consultant, pro-West and pro-reform, should be on the list of possible successor candidates for discussion in the mid-term.
Future Impacts
In the interim, US Secretary of State Condolezza Rice will be visiting Libya in the coming weeks as part of the restoration of full diplomatic relations. The visit will be the first by a US Secretary of State to the country since 1953. As such, it is anticipated that a discussion regarding the future political landscape, post-Seif, will ensue in the coming weeks. In addition, the country’s growing oil wealth and increased exposure to the West are likely to increase pressure and encourage internal change.
Although there has been no speculation over the next possible successor thus far, we believe Colonel Qaddafi will continue to play a major role in grooming the next leader. As Seif has planted many seeds for economic progression and reform, it is possible for one of his trusted followers and supporters to gain favor in the eyes of the Colonel, and could be groomed for leadership in the mid to long-term.