Highlights
– Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) attacks oil refinery in southern port city of Aden
– Group claims attack on jihadist website within one day of operation
– Attack comes less than a week after group calls for attacks against Western economic interests in Yemen
– AQY continues to demonstrate increased capabilities and streamlining of operation logistics; more attacks likely in near to mid-term
Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQY) has claimed a record number of attacks against Western interests and tourists in recent months (Previous Report). The most recent operation occurred on May 30, 2008, when several AQY members launched three rocket-propelled grenades on an oil refinery in the southern port city of Aden . Although no injuries were reported, possibly illustrating AQY’s lack of professionalism, the group nonetheless, was successful in demonstrating its ability to carry out demands and publish its attacks quickly.
As a subgroup of the older, more established al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), AQY has increased its operations in Yemen and demonstrated capabilities to conduct further attacks in the near to mid-term. The group has been more interested in targeting Western economic interests, as well as foreigners and tourists in Yemen. We anticipate such targeting to continue, as the group will likely recruit more fighters and develop its capabilities in the near term.
AQY Quickly Answers Call for Attack
Only four days before AQY’s Yemen Soldiers Brigade fired three mortar rounds on the oil refinery in Aden, AQY senior members called of attacks on foreign interests. In a message posted on a popular jihadist website on May 26, 2008, AQY called “brothers in Yemen to resume attacks like that on USS Cole and French Limburg.” The message further stated, “Only such attacks can have effects on people nowadays.”
The proclamation confirmed that AQY would benefit more from operations such as these since “al-Qaeda is suffering from defaming and fabrication.” Moreover, the post urged fighters to specifically focus their attacks on United States interests. Specifically, the posting declared, “Targeting a Yemeni soldier or a house for Ali Saleh is not useful,” referring to the Yemen guard killed during the failed attack on the US embassy in March 2008, when AQY members struck a nearby girls high school instead (Terrorist Attack, Previous Report).
Despite AQY’s failure to exact its targets, the group has shown advanced logistical capabilities in recent weeks. AQY’s ability to carry out an attack on the oil refinery within days of its demand and the group’s speedy claim of responsibility, posted on jihadist websites one day following the attack, clearly illustrates the group’s growing media capabilities and excellent communication skills. Specifically, the group’s post of the attack on the same website as the post for the call to attack demonstrates the organization’s inter-cell communication, such as between its senior leaders and media cell members.
Forecast: Attacks Increase and Success Level Rises in Near to Mid-Term
The success rate for AQY attacks continues to steadily improve, making similar attacks more likely in the near to mid-term. As the group continues to pledge loyalties to AQAP, it is likely that the senior al-Qaeda organization based in Saudi Arabia will continue to finance, supply, and support AQY’s attack in the near term.
The young militants of AQY will continue to demonstrate their dedication to the jihad by following orders of senior members and will continue to improve their novice skills through increasing attacks against Western interests in Yemen in the near to mid-term.
