Shi’ite protesters in Bahrain, throwing Molotov cocktails at state police, clashed with anti-riot security forces for three consecutive days starting Saturday, May 19, 2007 . The catalyst for the unprecedented violent riots was a trial set for Monday, May 21, 2007, for Hassan Mushaima, leader of the Shi’ite “Haq” (Right) Movement, and Abdulhadi Al Khawaja, executive director of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights. Both were arrested in February 2007 on charges of disseminating false information and undermining stability, including calling for the overthrow of the government. However, despite King Shiekh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa’s pardon of the two on Friday, May 18, violent clashes still broke out between Shi’ite supporters and government police.
Last weekend’s riots calls to mind similar violent breakouts and non-violent tensions between Shi’ites and Sunnis in the Arabian Peninsula in recent months. In Yemen, ongoing clashes between Shi’ite rebel groups and state security forces in the North have lasted for months with little to no prospect for stabilization (Previous Report). In Saudi Arabia, the Shi’ite minority has continuously raised concerns for their rights and freedoms, but their efforts have only been slightly mitigated, raising tensions between the two communities.
Bahrain has a history of Shia protests that ebb and flow. However, the recent set of clashes is concerning due to the growing threat of sectarian violence spreading throughout the Arabian Peninsula.
We believe Shi’ite-Sunni conflicts throughout the Middle East and Arabian Peninsula continue to gain momentum and energy from the chief sectarian conflict in Iraq. Ultimately, we are concerned about the potential for sectarian violence to continue growing and spreading throughout the region.
Shi’ites Break the Silence
Bahrain has a Shi’ite dominated population – almost 70 percent – ruled by a Sunni-dominated Monarchy, including its 40-member Council of Representatives. The last elections held in December 2006, negatively impacted Shi’ites. The party with the largest number of seats, al Wafaq (Shi’ite), was the former party of Hassan Mushaima, holding 17 seats. However, three Sunni parties and a mix of Sunni-supportive independents now occupy the remaining seats. Thus, even though the largest cohesive party is Shi’ite, it is trumped by a number of Sunni factions.
• In the months leading up the elections, Mushaima and several other activists withdrew from al Wafaq after the group announced that it would end its boycott of the elections and take part in the 2006 vote. The splintered group formed Haq, which was the only movement to boycott the elections.
Nonetheless, the question that still remains as to why the conflict suddenly shifted or resorted to violence even after the King pardoned both detainees. We believe the blame largely rests with the ongoing sectarian conflicts resonating from neighboring countries, like Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and mostly Iraq.
Outside Influence and Lessons Learned
Sectarian conflicts are intensifying in the Middle East and as a result, the effects are spilling over into neighboring Gulf countries. Bahrain, traditionally a more peaceful monarchy, is experiencing its latest and most dramatic wave of violent revolts by a frustrated Shi’ite majority. Bahrain’s Shi’ite-Sunni struggles have existed for decades, but it has just recently has flared into violence.
It is no coincidence that Bahraini Shia aggression follows alongside the increase of violent sectarian conflicts in the region. The majority of last weekend’s protesters are young impressionable school students, which aligns with the youthful rebels from Yemen.
• In Yemen, groups of Shi’ite rebels are successfully impacting the Sunni-controlled government. Unfortunately, lessons learned reveal that violence is a key for rebels to push their agenda, or at the very least, bring forth negotiations (Previous Report).
Yemen provides energy for Shi’ites to continue their struggle against Sunnis. We are concerned about the propensity for future protesters in the region to resort to violence as a bargaining or negotiation tool.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia provides another example for Bahrain. In the Kingdom, Shi’ites seek to have more influence in the nation’s governance and have created civil disturbances in the past, primarily in the Eastern Province, where they are primarily located.
• In the summer of 2006, Saudi Shi’ites demonstrated in support of the Shi’ite community and Lebanese Hezbollah.
Though Yemen and Saudi Arabia provide examples of how sectarian conflicts can escalate, it is Iraq that acts as the catalyst for these “mini” conflicts in the region. The Sunni-Shi’ite fighting in Iraq has provided the necessary motivation and determination on multiple levels (emotional, spiritual, religious) for Shi’tes in the Arab world to stand up for what they believe, regardless of the consequences.
Forecast: Sectarian Conflicts Will Continue to Grow Alongside Iraqi Violence
Since Shekh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa announced a sweeping reform plan over six years ago, little has been done to tackle sectarian discrimination and tensions. In fact, the latter has been exacerbated, as the majority Shi’ite community feels politically marginalized and socially disadvantaged.
Many of Bahrain’s Shi’ites, like most Shi’ites in the Middle East, are angered by widespread suspicion among government officials and Sunnis regarding their national loyalty and ties to co-religionists in Iraq and Iran. As the conflict in Iraq has assumed increasingly sectarian dimensions, so tensions have risen beyond its borders.
As a result, we believe that unless Iraq’s sectarian conflict is effectively stifled, it will continue to feed Sunni-Shi’ite clashes in the Middle East and the Gulf.