The fledging peace process between the Basque terrorist organization ETA and the Spanish government is once again threatened by renewed threats from the militant group . The latest instability comes after Spain?s most notorious terrorist, Inaki De Juana Chaos, was sentenced to another 12 years in jail after making death threats to prison governors. De Juana Chaos was about to complete his 18-year sentence for terrorist acts when the new charges came to light, giving him yet another long incarceration. The sentence has sparked immense anger within the separatist group, which has vowed revenge. There are several reasons to why the latest warnings should be taken seriously.
Despite of successful crackdowns and numerous arrests by Spanish and French law enforcement, ETA still holds a small but noteworthy presence in some of the Basque Country. Assessments estimate that the ETA has logistical networks in France in addition to a squad of a few hundred, mostly young members distributed across the borders of Spain and France who are believed to be paid, highly trained, and prepared to carry out deadly missions. These scattered cells are also understood to operate in well-organized units of about four people. Although the number of clusters remains unknown, their discipline and capability have been established.
This is also not the first time ETA has threatened the ceasefire since its adoption in March . In August, the group expressed anger toward ?Spain?s and France?s continued repressive policies? and warned that they may respond violently if their demands were not met?one of those being for Spain not to arrest any more ETA members (source). Throughout recent years, numerous arrests have rendered the organization significant blows , and their anger for De Juana Chaos? cause could boil over to a yet another violent reiteration.
That the group still accuses France and Spain, in particular, of ignoring their claims in the peace process echoes the same accusations posed by their adversaries. Conservatives within both Spain?s government and the European Union have consistently opposed peace talks. Conservatives in the European Parliament tried alternative avenues to impede what they call ?a negotiation with terrorists.? Such an attempt was seen in the recent parliamentary vote in which conservative members of the European Parliament tried to declare that ETA had failed to meet the pre-conditions for peace talks. They ended up defeated, and the resolution moved for a continuation of the talks.
The conservative?s motion also mirrored the ongoing debate within Spain?s main political parties on how to handle their homegrown terrorism issue. Although a peace dialogue is favored by a majority, an increasing number of the Spanish voters have shown skepticism about ETA abating. This makes for popular support of the country?s and ultimately the EU?s conservative faction and may make way for a different outcome than that seen in the October vote. And, as ETA perceives themselves and their cause being slighted, they could be compelled to rearm.
In the latest developments, Spain?s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who launched the first peace talks with the separatist group when he took office, admitted that De Juana Chaos? prolonged prison sentence complicates the already frail process. As TRC has noted, ETA has a long history of turning on their words: making and breaking ceasefires. There is, thus, a possibility for a reappearance of violence in Spain, and those who have been targeted in the past, especially any individuals linked to the Popular Party or to the Spanish government, police and security forces, should remain cautious.
