The government of President Bashar al-Asad (see photo: Ricardo Stuckert_ABr) has recently cracked down on domestic opposition groups, sending a clear message that reform is regarded as an intolerable threat to the Syrian regime. Exploiting unified domestic momentum and with the spotlight of the international community dimmed, Asad has taken the opportunity to counter internal opposition parties aggressively. Damascus? repressive tactics are intensifying in light of the recent and loosely formed Syrian exiled opposition front. United under the ?Damascus Declaration? that calls for democratic and national change, former Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam has aligned with the banned Muslim Brotherhood (MB, Group Profile) of Syria. Intent on securing power, the Asad regime is working to prevent an opposition network that connects internal groups with the exiled front.
As the NY Times article mentions, the security services of the Syrian government has increased harassment of human rights workers and political leaders, preventing their travel abroad and imprisoning them. In April, Amnesty International released a scathing report that charged Damascus with baseless imprisonment of its citizens and the use of torture in detention centers. Human Rights Watch claims at least 30 political and human rights activists have been detained in Syria since January 2006. Recently, Kurdish activist Riad Drar was sentenced to five years in prison for his human rights work and Abdul-Sattar Qatan was given 12 years for his membership to MB. Additionally, government officials have acted to constrain and manipulate the media: an EU-financed media center was closed, and the national news media was instructed to promote the official agenda of the government.
Despite the mounting attention on his government?s actions, external pressure on the Syrian regime has lessened, emboldening Asad. With China and Russia opposing UN sanctions against Syria for its role in the Hariri assassination and the hard-charging Detlev Mehlis stepping down as head of the UN Investigative Commission, Damascus has judged the Hariri investigation to be more of a nuisance than a threat. Furthermore, with the US military mired down in Iraq , Damascus? fear of being targeted by the US government for regime change has lessened. Moreover, Hamas? electoral takeover of the Palestinian Authority and the subsequent refusal of the US to engage that government have further emboldened Asad. Should democracy take hold in Syria, the likely victor will similarly be an Islamist party with a religious platform, the MB. In sum, policy options are now available to Asad that include the repression of internal dissent in the name of national security.
When the international community threatened sanctions against Syria for their role in the Hariri assassination and instructed Damascus to pull out of Lebanon, the Syrian public stood behind Asad and his regime. Driving their support was an instinctual defiance against foreign pressure and a fear of the ?Iraq scenario,? where sanctions devastated the country in the 1990s and regime change in 2003 has resulted in social and political chaos. Facing those prospects, the Syrian public chose to back the Asad regime, a known entity that represents stability. With the majority support currently in place, Asad is enabled to suppress the minority opposition calling for democratic reform.
President Asad has intensified his efforts to consolidate power since the June 2005 Baath Party Congress, and the crackdown on dissent can be seen in this context. He has embraced repressive measures and the Syrian security services as effective tools to combat challenges to his governance, and he has been emboldened by public support and the weakening leverage of his foreign opponents.