There is a sense, if not a fear, that as the US military involvement in Iraq is reduced, jihadis will seek out other unstable regions in which to establish bases and from which to launch increasing regional and even global operations. Articles in popular and professional publications abound suggesting an easy proximate move would be into Africa. Over the past year, the WAR Report has noted the likelihood that senior al-Qaeda operatives involved in the 1998 African Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania as well as the perpetrators of subsequent attacks in Kenya remain based in the region as well as the continued use of black market smuggling routes, which still provide the arms fueling a multitude of conflicts across the continent (WAR Report). Yet, militant Islam represents nearly half of the clashes plaguing Africa ? at least as many violent struggles across the continent are motivated by ethnic, linguistic, or tribal conflicts. Perhaps most alarmingly, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) sixth largest producer, Nigeria , has arguably been the most volatile external factor affecting American oil prices throughout 2005. Although western tourism in Africa is negligible and foreign investment comparatively minimal, it is clear that local terrorism and political violence there can and does possess a truly global impact.

Somalia and Sudan remain among the least-governed territories and, conveniently, most friendly to extremist Islamic militants. Kenyan officials who are redoubling their efforts to apprehend the four senior operatives behind the Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam embassy bombings of 1998 as well as Kenya’s hotel bombing and failed stinger missile aircraft attack in 2002 denied on January 1, 2006 the existence of cells within its borders but seemed convinced al-Qaeda elements were, indeed, working from Somalia. Ahmed Salim Swedan, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, Fahid Mohammed Ally Msalam and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed remain at large. Credible reports indicate Mohammed married a woman in Somalia and was known locally as Abdul Karim. The threats posed by this nucleus and their allies continue to trigger US State Department travel warnings across East Africa ? most recently on December 30, 2005 (Advisory). These warnings come on the heels of a discovery by Kenyan security of a suspect arrested recently with a rocket launcher, four missile launchers, and propellers in Wajir, as well as the credible intelligence reports that suspicious persons had been spotted photographing Western facilities, tourist resorts along the coast, and even ships arriving at the port of Mombasa. Muslims comprise a significant component of the African diaspora, and, thus, it is becoming increasingly common to discover agents such as July 21, 2005 London bombing conspiracy suspects Yasin Hassan Omar from Somalia and Muktar Said Ibrahim from Eritrea arrested in the UK and British citizen Haroon Rashid Aswat arrested in Zambia . Additionally, the poor and squalid living conditions of African immigrant communities across Europe that have recently erupted in communal violence also serve as hotbeds for jihadi recruitment. Thus, Africa will increasingly provide a significant source of manpower and logistical and operational planning for global terrorist operations.