Analytical Approaches for Sensing Novel and Emerging Threats
We are proud to feature this new paper by John Sullivan:
Security and public safety agencies must address a range of current and emerging threats. These range from conflicts, strategic crime, terrorism, disease and natural hazards, as well as the confluence of any or all occurring at a given point in time. A range of intelligence disciplines and agencies are needed to address these threats and various phases of operations (i.e., pre-, trans-, and post-event). Intelligence
fusion or the production of intelligence to anticipate and understand these complex threats is essential. This paper will provide an overview of the Transaction Analysis Model, Transaction Analysis Cycle, and Intelligence Preparation for Operations as ways to scan the horizon for indicators, monitor evolving threat potentials (i.e., alternative hypotheses), and forecast risk related to novel and emerging threats.
Warning intelligence, strategic foresight, operational net assessment, and the co- production of intelligence for interdisciplinary response will also be discussed. Analytical Approaches for Sensing Novel and Emerging Threats (PDF Document)