As summer approaches, we return to our OODA Special Report on the business impacts of drought conditions. Initiated by OODA CTO Bob Gourley is his June 2021 post – How Drought In The US Should Impact Your Mid To Long Range Strategic Planning – about the unprecedented heatwave in the Pacific Northwest driven by climate change, which focused on the major weather system known as a stationary Heat Dome…making existing drought conditions even worse than they were before.
In 2022, open our aperture globally, to assess how a concern for regional “megadroughts” has now morphed into what has been called “perpetual drought” conditions globally. We now apply a global filter to our research, analysis, and scenario planning. Specifically, Step 2 of the scenario planning process is an effort to explore the external environment for patterns and trends since our assessment last year.
In August of 2020, Bob Gourley was joined by technologist and national security expert Dan Gerstein from Rand Corporation. Dan is also the author of the recently released book entitled “The Story of Technology“ In March of 2020, Bob had a conversation with Lance Mortlock, a Senior Ernst and Young (EY) Strategy Partner. He is the author of the book Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for Post Pandemic Future, which explores ways scenario planning can help organizations be more resilient.
Threads that emerge in these conversations are approaches leaders can take to prepare for the future, the role of governments in the future of technology, the “technology wars” as they are currently waged, humanities place in this new warfare, expected outcomes from scenario planning and what could be the next big disruptive event.
Lance Mortlock is a Senior EY Strategy Partner. He is author of the book Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for Post Pandemic Future, which explores ways scenario planning can help organizations be more resilient. This is a must-read book for anyone in the Risk Management field. It provides practical advice for strategists, planners, executives and board members on how to ask better questions related to the future, uncertainty, risk and strategy.
We spend a lot of time thinking through emergency scenarios and the strategies that enable risk mitigation and opportunity exploitation around the world. Covid-19 provides a nearly unprecedented disruption at a global level that is reshaping our lives, economy, and culture. Here are some of the emergent ideas that are on my radar screen surrounding Covid-19 that could inform your decision making process or your scenario planning.