On January 3, 2020, Iran’s Qassem Suleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRCG-QF) was killed by a US drone strike. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that “harsh revenge” awaits those who led the strike against Suleimani. The military advisor to Khamenei stated that Iran’s response would “for sure be military” and directed against US military sites. It is hard to tell what the full nature of Iran’s response will be, history has shown they have an ability to surprise. However, we assess the most likely response will be state sponsored destructive cyber attacks done in a way that implies they were launched by Iran but still offer some level of ambiguity over source. We also assess increased attacks by hacktivist supporters of Iran.
07 Jan 2020