22 Feb 2021

The OODA Almanac – 2021 Edition

As a logger and holstein farmer, my grandfather was heavily dependent on the weather for his livelihood. Each year, he purchased a copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and it was kept in an easily accessible reading spot for reference. Taken on a day by day basis, the Farmer’s Almanac was not the greatest of guides, but if you took it on a month-by-month basis it claims about an 80% accuracy, which was more than enough to guide generalized decisions about logging and farming environments in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom.

The OODA Almanac proposes to identify those topics and patterns we see having significance in 2021 to guide your short and long-term decision making. Over the course of 2021, we will continue to inject additional observations on these topics into our analysis or as stand-alone tidbits of observed intelligence (OODINT).

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14 Jan 2021

Australian Home Affairs Minister takes issue with EU Electronic Communications Code

On December 21, 2020, a new communications code was introduced in the European Union with hopes of harmonising the legal framework for electronic communications. However, the Australian government and governments from Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US have unveiled undesired, unintended consequences of the new code. The code

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03 Sep 2020

OODAcast: Jim Miller on Managing Policy in an Age of Constant Disruption and Dynamic Threats

Jim Miller has worked for four decades on a combination of private and public sector initiatives focused on addressing a wide variety of national security threats.  He has held numerous positions within the Department of Defense including serving as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and has been awarded the DoD’s highest civilian award four times.

In this OODAcast, we discuss a wide variety of topics including how to use red teaming to plan for emerging threats and opportunities, how to bridge the gap between planning and execution, lessons-learned from 40 years of working with  top strategists and thinkers, and the emerging threat landscape.

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02 Jun 2020

What is our China Cyber Indictment Endgame?

In February 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) issued indictments against four Chinese individuals suspected in conducting the 2017 intrusion into Equifax, a global information solutions company that organizes, assimilates, and analyzes data on consumers and businesses worldwide.  The personal data of approximately 145 million U.S. citizens was stolen in the breach.  The four suspects are alleged to be members of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) 54th Research Institute.

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27 May 2020

OODAcast with Congressman Will Hurd

In this OODAcast, OODA LLC CEO Matt Devost interviews Congressman Will Hurd in a wide ranging discussion that touches on issues of geopolitical risk, cybersecurity, cyber risk and ways to help ensure our nation is prepared to compete and win in an age of rapid technological innovation. Quantum Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Advanced Communications (5G) and other mega-trends of technology are examined, as well as insights into leadership in the modern world.

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14 May 2020

Cyberwar Was Coming: A Reflection on the 25 Year Old Thesis that Predicted a Generation of Cyberconflict

“You’ve got to read what this kid is writing out of his basement at the University of Vermont…”  – recently retired CIA officer to intelligence and military colleagues in 1994. A candid 25 year retrospective on a thesis that launched a tremendous amount of dialogue and action on the issues of information warfare, cyberterrorism, and cybersecurity.

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03 Apr 2020

DHS Issues Three Warnings on Terrorist, Extremists, and Cyber Threats Relating to COVID-19

The Department of Homeland Security has issued a series of intelligence advisories associated with threat actors exploiting COVID-19 to engage in conventional and cyber attacks.  The three separate warnings range from ISIS exploiting the global crisis for violence to extremists intentionally trying to spread COVID-19 through minority populations to cyber attackers exploiting work from home technologies.  All decisions-makers need to be aware of these threats regardless of their organization size or sector.  Here are the details

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20 Mar 2020

A Perfect Storm forms as COVID-19 Meets Cyberspace

On Sunday, the US Department of Health and Human Services was hit by a cyber attack intended to disrupt its response to the COVID-19 virus. The ‘disruption and disinformation’ attack has illustrated an intent to target a renewed dependency on IT systems during this pandemic. Businesses, universities, and governments around the world are rapidly deploying remote capabilities to allow work from home during self-isolation to flatten the curve. This solution however, has hyperextended existing IT infrastructure and while defenders struggle to adapt to this new perimeter, adversaries are sure to discover more points of impact.

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16 Mar 2020

Covid19 Related Geopolitical Questions To Drive Your Strategic Planning

Over the next three months the Covid19 virus may cause dramatic changes on the international scene that will impact decision-making in government and industry. We have no special insights into what they could be, but through thirty years of close observations of national security topics we can say this, we should be prepared for surprises. The impact of surprises can be mitigated by collecting information, and that collection can be optimized by starting with good questions.

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28 Feb 2020

Living in the Future

I don’t consider myself a futurist, but thinking about the future has been an essential component of my career and supports a broad range of strategic thinking in the domains of cyber and geopolitical risk, threat intelligence, and business planning.  I’ve taken to calling these future brainstorming mental models “living in the future” and the approach has been adapted into our HACKthink methodology as well to help organizations derive the essential actions needed to arrive at a future outcome.

The focus for our conference this year is “Future Proof”, so I thought it would be interesting to take a retrospective look at a blog post I wrote over 10 years ago called “We all live in the future now” to see how well the analysis stood the test of time. 

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