The high altitude nuclear atmospheric tests conducted in 1962, code named ?Fishbowl,? demonstrated the effects of an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). These atmospheric tests caused a powerful pulse that disrupted radio stations and electrical equipment in Hawaii, some 800 miles away. These tests are solid evidence that the EMP generated from a high altitude nuclear explosion presents a real threat to critical infrastructure. The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from an Electromagnetic Pulse Attack predicted that an explosion some 200 miles above Kansas, the approximate center of the continental United States, could generate a pulse powerful enough to propagate across the entire country. Theoretically, this is true. However, it is unclear the amount of damage an EMP would cause. Certainly, a percentage of our critical infrastructure would be damaged, but it cannot be stated with certainty how much damage and the severity of the damage caused. First, electrical equipment that is turned off is less likely to be damage. Second, certain pieces of the infrastructure, especially those maintained by the military, are hardened against an EMP.

Moreover, it is uncertain any enemies of the US have the capability to carry out such a strike. The primary states and terrorist groups of concern ? Iran , North Korea , and al-Qaeda — do not currently possess Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) with the range required to reach the center of the US. As a result, our enemies must find a way to shorten the range to target. One way to achieve this goal is to launch a medium range ballistic missile, such as the Shabab-3 or No-dong, from the deck of a cargo vessel stationed off the US coast. According to John Pike?s GlobalSecurity.org Web site, the Shabab-3 and the No-dong, neither of which are coincidentally based on the same design, are roughly 15 meters in length, which prevents the missiles from fitting inside the standard 40-foot shipping container (see this WAR Report). However, the missile?s size does not prevent a determined enemy from concealing the weapon underneath a large tarp on the deck of a barge. While there does not appear to be any definitive evidence that Iran, North Korea, or al-Qaeda are capable of launching a medium range ballistic missile from the deck of a ship at sea, it must be acknowledged that this scenario is at least theoretically possible.

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