It was a relief to see the crown passed peacefully to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Abdullah when his brother, King Fahd (see photo below), passed away on the night of July 31, 2005. As crown prince, Abdullah had been the de facto ruler of the Kingdom since his brother?s stroke in 1995. Continuity was expected with Abdullah, a reformer and strong US ally (relative to the rest of his family), finally able to exercise the full powers of his position as leader of the country. In the short-term, Abdullah is expected to have a freer hand to get some of the minor issues on his reformist agenda rolling, albeit at a snail?s pace, as has been the way with reforms in the Kingdom since its inception. Without a doubt, relations with the United States will not be harmed with Abdullah in the throne. Indeed, oil prices, usually very jumpy indicators of instability in the region, barely reacted to the change to the monarchy.

After Abdullah, the future gets a bit murkier. As would be expected, the third-in-line, Prince Sultan , moved up to become Crown Prince. Rumors indicate that Prince Abdullah does not get along well half-brother Sultan, who is more conservative. He has a gaggle of power-hungry, full-blood brothers to whom he is more loyal. These brothers were known as the Sudeiri seven. They include two important conservatives ? Prince Nayyef, the Interior Minister, and Prince Salman, governor of Riyadh. Nayyef and Salman are both leading contenders for the third-in-line to the throne position vacated by their brother Sultan. With both Abdullah and Sultan in their 80s, it is conceivable that one of these two men could be King of Saudi Arabia within a few years. Thus, it is this third position, which has yet to be filled, that is critical to watch. There is a small chance that former ambassador to the United States, Prince Bandar, may be handed this role. Prince Nayyef , however, is the more likely choice. A religious conservative with a stand-offish attitude toward the US, Nayyef would be bad for US-Saudi relations. According to Michael Scott Doran, writing for Foreign Affairs, Prince Nayyef is an advocate of the ideology of ?Tawhid.? Roughly translated to ?Islamic monotheism,? the ?Tawhid? ideology holds that Islam is the only legitimate religion on earth and that good relations with non-Muslim countries are a source of contamination. Nayyef has also had controversial connections with clerics who espouse terrorism, and he is seen as a stumbling block for the reforms that Abdullah has wished to pass.