Rebel chief John Garang’s move to reconcile his renamed Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) with the oppressive Islamic regime headed by President Omar Hassan al-Bashir’s (see photo in following column) National Congress Party (NCP) has secured him significant gains that will not easily slip from his grasp. Meanwhile, western leaders and investors are relying on their assessment that this leopard has changed his spots. Those remaining cling to the hope that these developments will provide the gravity and momentum to attract the remaining insurgents from the south, east, and west into an orbit of greater stability.

Although the new constitution assures that the Muslim-dominated National Congress Party retains a 52 percent hold on the government and parliament, Garang insured that the SPLM secured 28 percent, thereby leaving all remaining groups to carve out a voice from the left over 20 percent. As first vice president, Garang also possesses veto, described by one observer as “a security valve for the implementation of the peace agreement and constitution.” Nonetheless, Bashir’s recipe for peace ensures that even if Garang comes to lead all Christians, animists, and critics alike, the NCP retains the upper hand. But, perhaps just as importantly, Garang solicited from Bashir a guarantee that the revenues from the oil rich south would be split evenly with the north. Finally, Garang even extracted a pledge from Bashir in the peace accord that the south could vote for secession six years hence. All told, the SPLM under Garang’s leadership is firmly ensconced as the number two political power within Sudan.